Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7?

$37.7K Vol
2026年9月7日
Active
機率趨勢
Down 51.5%
Up 48.5%

核心摘要

根據「Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Down 以壓倒性的 5,150% 獲勝機率主導市場；Up 以 4,850% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $37.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Down (5,150%)：Down 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,150¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Up (4,850%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Up 保持著 4,850% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,850¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Down5150.0%—5150¢-5050¢
2Up4850.0%—4850¢-4750¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 7 '26 12:00 ET candle.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 7 '26 12:00 ET candle.

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Sep 6, 2026

  • 09:06 PM
    0X0x0ceB211bce08f16e9A124E7Eb0e03C5EbCFc48AC-1777478472380
    $1.00

    Bought 1.754384 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.57

  • 09:05 PM
    INincrediblemachine
    $3.00

    Bought 5.17 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.58

  • 09:05 PM
    KIkingofcoinflips
    $34.20

    Bought 60 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.57

  • 09:02 PM
    COComTruise
    $11.40

    Bought 20 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.57

  • 08:46 PM
    INincrediblemachine
    $4.00

    Bought 6.9 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.58

  • 08:46 PM
    KIkingofcoinflips
    $466.72

    Bought 818.8 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.57

  • 08:44 PM
    INincrediblemachine
    $3.93

    Bought 6.9 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.57

  • 08:44 PM
    KIkingofcoinflips
    $459.20

    Bought 820 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.56

  • 08:36 PM
    0X0xD222ac4160bE5850C7fA435E7131d9e7cd47fDB5-1766006684362
    $10.00

    Bought 22.727271 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.44

  • 08:31 PM
    0X0xB676deA23d6d2aBF8d172Dd641227a8eD61E7Fb8-1775849821906
    $5.00

    Bought 11.363635 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.44

  • 08:27 PM
    0X0xD222ac4160bE5850C7fA435E7131d9e7cd47fDB5-1766006684362
    $15.00

    Bought 34.090908 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.44

  • 08:23 PM
    KIkingofcoinflips
    $2.41

    Bought 4.31 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7? at 0.56

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

KI1
kingofcoinflips
事件損益
+$29.29
成交量
$12,465.69
持倉數
Up
TR2
trulyalya1
事件損益
-$255.94
成交量
$2,725.85
持倉數
Down
AM3
AmericaFirst1
事件損益
-$119.57
成交量
$2,691.82
持倉數
Down
064
0x06dc…0452
事件損益
+$222.44
成交量
$2,348.95
持倉數
Up
NI5
Niseko
事件損益
+$100.00
成交量
$2,000.00
持倉數
Up
GO6
Goldismoney
事件損益
-$180.47
成交量
$1,883.96
持倉數
Down
CO7
ComTruise
事件損益
-$153.07
成交量
$1,862.54
持倉數
Down
BD8
0xbd3F…4159
事件損益
-$100.02
成交量
$1,604.69
持倉數
Down

常見問題

目前市場對「Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7?」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Down 以 5,150% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Up（4,850%）。該市場總成交量已達 $37.7K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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