Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
核心摘要
根據「Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，70,000 以壓倒性的 9,995% 獲勝機率主導市場；72,000 以 9,870% 位居第二，74,000 以 9,665% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $71.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- 70,000 (9,995%)：70,000 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,995¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $38.9K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- 72,000 (9,870%)：作為最可行的替代選項，72,000 保持著 9,870% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,870¢。
- 74,000 (9,665%)：以 9,665% 的機率位列第三，市場對 74,000 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 76,000 (8,700%)、78,000 (5,850%)，以及 80,000 (2,950%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 82,000 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70,000 | 9995.0% | $38.9K | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 2 | 72,000 | 9870.0% | $3.5K | 9870¢ | -9770¢ |
| 3 | 74,000 | 9665.0% | $6.4K | 9665¢ | -9565¢ |
| 4 | 76,000 | 8700.0% | $11.3K | 8700¢ | -8600¢ |
| 5 | 78,000 | 5850.0% | $1.3K | 5850¢ | -5750¢ |
| 6 | 80,000 | 2950.0% | $3.4K | 2950¢ | -2850¢ |
| 7 | 82,000 | 950.0% | $6.9K | 950¢ | -850¢ |
| 8 | 84,000 | 355.0% | $10.5K | 355¢ | -255¢ |
| 9 | 86,000 | 140.0% | $14.9K | 140¢ | -40¢ |
| 10 | 90,000 | 95.0% | $523 | 95¢ | 5¢ |
| 11 | 88,000 | 80.0% | $4.7K | 80¢ | 20¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 8, 2026
- 09:41 PM——$1.00
Bought 1.042731 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11? at 0.96
- 09:39 PM0X0x9A44718321a6B3ec4D27AcB382B278Df4F116E59-1768310005324$20.00
Bought 71.428572 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? at 0.28
- 09:32 PM0X0xDB5$129.30
Bought 862 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.15
- 09:32 PMSASadoshi$150.70
Bought 175.23 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.86
- 09:25 PMSASadoshi$51.60
Bought 60 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.86
- 09:03 PM——$5.45
Bought 6.06 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 11? at 0.9
- 08:41 PMMIMirotadze$50.40
Bought 60 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.84
- 08:02 PM——$1.47
Bought 2.02 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? at 0.73
- 08:02 PM——$5.73
Bought 6.3 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 11? at 0.91
- 07:45 PM0X0xDB5$2.55
Bought 15 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.17
- 07:24 PMGOgobblewobble$17.85
Bought 105 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11? at 0.17
- 06:49 PMGOgobblewobble$104.00
Bought 400 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? at 0.26
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，70,000 以 9,995% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 72,000（9,870%），以及 74,000（9,665%）。該市場總成交量已達 $71.7K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。