Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
核心摘要
根據「Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，72,000 以壓倒性的 9,885% 獲勝機率主導市場；74,000 以 9,825% 位居第二，76,000 以 9,050% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $100.1K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- 72,000 (9,885%)：72,000 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,885¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $11.5K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- 74,000 (9,825%)：作為最可行的替代選項，74,000 保持著 9,825% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,825¢。
- 76,000 (9,050%)：以 9,050% 的機率位列第三，市場對 76,000 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 78,000 (6,350%)、80,000 (2,650%)，以及 82,000 (660%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 84,000 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72,000 | 9885.0% | $11.5K | 9885¢ | -9785¢ |
| 2 | 74,000 | 9825.0% | $10.1K | 9825¢ | -9725¢ |
| 3 | 76,000 | 9050.0% | $8.7K | 9050¢ | -8950¢ |
| 4 | 78,000 | 6350.0% | $5.5K | 6350¢ | -6250¢ |
| 5 | 80,000 | 2650.0% | $10.3K | 2650¢ | -2550¢ |
| 6 | 82,000 | 660.0% | $3.2K | 660¢ | -560¢ |
| 7 | 84,000 | 110.0% | $13.3K | 110¢ | -10¢ |
| 8 | 86,000 | 50.0% | $7.5K | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 9 | 88,000 | 20.0% | $3.4K | 20¢ | 80¢ |
| 10 | 90,000 | 5.0% | $14.3K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 11 | 92,000 | 5.0% | $12.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 8, 2026
- 09:48 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.516854 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 10? at 0.89
- 09:48 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.467387 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.92
- 09:47 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.516854 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 10? at 0.89
- 09:47 AM0X0x7875b62d93522284742dE2bd49C2729Ac477E0eF-1773777488385$18.78
Bought 50.756757 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 10? at 0.37
- 09:46 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.467387 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.92
- 09:44 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.467387 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.92
- 09:43 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.4516 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.93
- 09:40 AM0X0x7875b62d93522284742dE2bd49C2729Ac477E0eF-1773777488385$60.00
Bought 545.454546 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 10? at 0.11
- 09:40 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.4516 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.93
- 09:39 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.4516 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.93
- 09:37 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.4516 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.93
- 09:35 AM——$1.35
Bought 1.4516 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10? at 0.93
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，72,000 以 9,885% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 74,000（9,825%），以及 76,000（9,050%）。該市場總成交量已達 $100.1K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。