Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer

$277.2K Vol
2026年10月19日
Active
機率趨勢
Lukas Neumayer 100.0%
Elmer Moeller 0.1%

核心摘要

根據「Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 8.5 以壓倒性的 9,995% 獲勝機率主導市場;Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 9.5 以 9,995% 位居第二,Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 22.5 以 9,950% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $277.2K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 8.5 (9,995%):Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 8.5 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,995¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 9.5 (9,995%):作為最可行的替代選項,Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 9.5 保持著 9,995% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,995¢。
  • Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 22.5 (9,950%):以 9,950% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 22.5 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Completed Match (5,250%)、Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 Winner (5,100%),以及 Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 O/U 8.5 (5,050%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 O/U 9.5 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 8.59995.0%—9995¢-9895¢
2Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 9.59995.0%—9995¢-9895¢
3Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 22.59950.0%—9950¢-9850¢
4Completed Match5250.0%$1455250¢-5150¢
5Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 Winner5100.0%—5100¢-5000¢
6Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 O/U 8.55050.0%—5050¢-4950¢
7Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 O/U 9.55050.0%—5050¢-4950¢
8Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 21.55050.0%$25050¢-4950¢
9Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Game Spread +/-1.55020.0%$2905020¢-4920¢
10Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 23.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
11Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 10.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
12Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 O/U 10.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
13Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer5.0%$276.9K5¢95¢
14Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 Winner5.0%—5¢95¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the tennis match between Elmer Moeller and Lukas Neumayer in the Maia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Lukas Neumayer.

This market will resolve to 'Lukas Neumayer' if Lukas Neumayer advances against Elmer Moeller.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Oct 14, 2026

  • 11:55 AM
    SHshidlomatan
    $2.25

    Sold 6.09 Elmer Moeller for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.37

  • 11:54 AM
    0X0xE91171f655bE1568e4c63f29663c0028649e3d4e-1765651946286
    $44.80

    Bought 71.11111 Lukas Neumayer for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.63

  • 11:54 AM
    ——
    $10.84

    Bought 15.71 Lukas Neumayer for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.69

  • 11:54 AM
    POPoScopeAnalyze
    $3.60

    Bought 5.142856 Lukas Neumayer for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.7

  • 11:53 AM
    ——
    $5.00

    Bought 14.28 Elmer Moeller for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.35

  • 11:53 AM
    THTheRomanProcurator
    $8.12

    Bought 23.882353 Elmer Moeller for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.34

  • 11:53 AM
    0X0x24Dc7Ade107bC5aF19D30a1754d0aFbD5959e326-1791474423105
    $1.10

    Bought 3.333334 Elmer Moeller for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.33

  • 11:53 AM
    0X0x5Cd5Cac616eE739C4671e047594aE4dFbde9357f-1791387607549
    $1.10

    Bought 3.333334 Elmer Moeller for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.33

  • 11:53 AM
    XAxabidaking
    $7,819.27

    Bought 11670.558675 Lukas Neumayer for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.67

  • 11:53 AM
    DIdid-i-ask-for-the-physio
    $170.00

    Bought 499.99 Elmer Moeller for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.34

  • 11:53 AM
    IWiWasEnough
    $3.35

    Bought 5 Lukas Neumayer for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.67

  • 11:53 AM
    UPUpTheBlues
    $176.21

    Bought 263 Lukas Neumayer for Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer at 0.67

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

FE1
ferrariChampions2026
事件損益
-$18,909.81
成交量
$77,557.41
持倉數
Elmer Moeller
PE2
pelik
事件損益
-$161.83
成交量
$54,000.00
持倉數
Lukas Neumayer
JI3
jiafanpomarke001
事件損益
-$53.53
成交量
$27,449.38
持倉數
Lukas Neumayer
UP4
UpTheBlues
事件損益
+$5,425.05
成交量
$26,083.48
持倉數
Lukas Neumayer
655
6512395314597884
事件損益
-$4,967.08
成交量
$15,040.10
持倉數
Elmer Moeller
EZ6
ezMerge
事件損益
-$45.05
成交量
$15,015.00
持倉數
Lukas Neumayer
RN7
RN1
事件損益
-$3,533.31
成交量
$13,857.11
持倉數
Elmer Moeller
328
0x32b4…3653
事件損益
-$2,059.42
成交量
$9,559.27
持倉數
Elmer Moeller

常見問題

目前市場對「Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 8.5 以 9,995% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 9.5(9,995%),以及 Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 22.5(9,950%)。該市場總成交量已達 $277.2K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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