
US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon
核心摘要
根據「US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Completed Match 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場;US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set Handicap +/-1.5 以 5,000% 位居第二,US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 36.5 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $119.4K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Completed Match (5,000%):Completed Match 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $2.9K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set Handicap +/-1.5 (5,000%):作為最可行的替代選項,US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set Handicap +/-1.5 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
- US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 36.5 (5,000%):以 5,000% 的機率位列第三,市場對 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 36.5 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Total Sets: O/U 4.5 (5,000%)、US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 38.5 (5,000%),以及 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 40.5 (5,000%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 3 O/U 9.5 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Completed Match | 5000.0% | $2.9K | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 2 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5000.0% | $28 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 3 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 36.5 | 5000.0% | $2 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 4 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 5 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 38.5 | 5000.0% | $43 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 6 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 40.5 | 5000.0% | $11 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 7 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 8 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 9 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 10 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 11 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 12 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Game Spread +/-7.5 | 2500.0% | $116 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 13 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 3 Winner | 2500.0% | $21 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 14 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set 4 Winner | 2350.0% | — | 2350¢ | -2250¢ |
| 15 | US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon | 2210.0% | $101.5K | 2210¢ | -2110¢ |
裁決規則
This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Gorzny and Raphael Collignon in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Gorzny' if Sebastian Gorzny advances against Raphael Collignon.
This market will resolve to 'Raphael Collignon' if Raphael Collignon advances against Sebastian Gorzny.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Aug 30, 2026
- 09:06 PMROrobertoxau$2.73
Bought 3.174414 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.86
- 09:05 PMSISimpson151$5.46
Bought 6.348835 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.86
- 09:03 PM——$1.00
Bought 1.162785 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.86
- 09:03 PMREremora-trader$2.61
Bought 3.034878 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.86
- 09:03 PMBRBrimoz$1,571.06
Bought 10473.742665 Sebastian Gorzny for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.15
- 08:47 PM——$25.00
Bought 28.73563 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.87
- 08:20 PM0X0x8A34E9597e450c9f85b56E4a8F212703ab8c92cD-1776046084842$30.00
Bought 34.482753 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.87
- 08:03 PM0X0x48cFB6dB98fEfEACc6A3A030a1865de0b6adC7dF-1764056399219$28.00
Bought 200 Sebastian Gorzny for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.14
- 07:50 PMJUjuanitooo12358$2.54
Sold 5.65 Collignon for Set Handicap: Collignon (-2.5) vs Gorzny (+2.5) at 0.45
- 07:50 PMJUjuanitooo12358$8.60
Sold 10 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.86
- 07:44 PMJIjiffyjoker66888$8.70
Bought 10 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.87
- 07:33 PMMOMobyembre$244.69
Bought 281.25 Raphael Collignon for US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon at 0.87
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Completed Match 以 5,000% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Set Handicap +/-1.5(5,000%),以及 US Open ATP: Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon Match O/U 36.5(5,000%)。該市場總成交量已達 $119.4K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
