Pro Football: Ashton Jeanty 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns

$8.6K Vol
2027年1月13日
Active
機率趨勢
3.5+ rushing TDs 84.0%
5.5+ rushing TDs 61.0%
7.5+ rushing TDs 51.2%
9.5+ rushing TDs 49.0%
11.5+ rushing TDs 31.5%

核心摘要

根據「Pro Football: Ashton Jeanty 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，3.5+ rushing TDs 以壓倒性的 84% 獲勝機率主導市場；9.5+ rushing TDs 以 69.5% 位居第二，5.5+ rushing TDs 以 61% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $8.6K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • 3.5+ rushing TDs (84%)：3.5+ rushing TDs 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 84¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $558 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • 9.5+ rushing TDs (69.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，9.5+ rushing TDs 保持著 69.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 70¢。
  • 5.5+ rushing TDs (61%)：以 61% 的機率位列第三，市場對 5.5+ rushing TDs 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

  • 替代選項：包括 7.5+ rushing TDs (51.2%)，以及 11.5+ rushing TDs (32%)。
  • 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 7.5+ rushing TDs 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
13.5+ rushing TDs84.0%$55884¢16¢
29.5+ rushing TDs69.5%$3.6K70¢31¢
35.5+ rushing TDs61.0%$2.4K61¢39¢
47.5+ rushing TDs51.2%$2.0K51¢49¢
511.5+ rushing TDs32.0%$29432¢68¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of rushing touchdowns Ashton Jeanty records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Ashton Jeanty does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.

If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many rushing touchdowns Ashton Jeanty recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：9.5+ rushing TDs 當前交易價為 69.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 21.9%，形成 -47.6% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
3.5+ rushing TDs84.0%68.2%-15.8%
9.5+ rushing TDs69.5%21.9%-47.6%
5.5+ rushing TDs61.0%60.9%-0.1%
7.5+ rushing TDs51.2%45.0%-6.3%
11.5+ rushing TDs32.0%17.5%-14.5%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Sep 21, 2026

  • 07:51 PM
    AJAJSV
    $2.93

    Bought 9.15625 Yes for Will Ashton Jeanty have 9.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.32

  • 05:36 PM
    PRpredictdogepepewif
    $27.20

    Sold 40 No for Will Ashton Jeanty have 9.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.68

  • 07:02 AM
    AJAJSV
    $2.70

    Bought 5 Yes for Will Ashton Jeanty have 7.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.54

Sep 20, 2026

  • 10:54 PM
    AHAhghastBog
    $35.89

    Sold 39.01 Yes for Will Ashton Jeanty have 3.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.92

  • 08:55 PM
    RORobbb
    $104.73

    Sold 177.5 Yes for Will Ashton Jeanty have 5.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.59

Sep 19, 2026

  • 02:33 PM
    PRpredictdogepepewif
    $0.59

    Sold 8.4 No for Will Ashton Jeanty have 3.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.07

  • 01:52 PM
    AJAJSV
    $14.57

    Bought 28.56 No for Will Ashton Jeanty have 7.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.51

  • 11:37 AM
    PPpppnn
    $1.40

    Sold 20 No for Will Ashton Jeanty have 3.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.07

Sep 18, 2026

  • 08:59 AM
    MAmaomao228
    $13.00

    Bought 20 No for Will Ashton Jeanty have 9.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.65

  • 08:59 AM
    PMpmqianbaolaile
    $13.40

    Bought 20.615385 No for Will Ashton Jeanty have 9.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.65

  • 08:59 AM
    0X0x2B733d127F58809eCF9917100A7F7A946F6F174E-1774267513940
    $32.50

    Bought 50 No for Will Ashton Jeanty have 9.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.65

  • 08:59 AM
    A5a5533
    $17.50

    Sold 50 Yes for Will Ashton Jeanty have 9.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? at 0.35

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

IM1
imumoccupancy
事件損益
-$75.02
成交量
$2,022.07
持倉數
NoNoNo
ND2
ndb1
事件損益
+$183.70
成交量
$1,201.77
持倉數
YesYesYes
DR3
Dr.PNL
事件損益
-$196.83
成交量
$660.56
持倉數
NoYes
GM4
gmfrom
事件損益
+$165.21
成交量
$650.77
持倉數
YesYes
RO5
Robbb
事件損益
-$15.90
成交量
$287.68
持倉數
YesNo
CH6
chrissair
事件損益
-$80.74
成交量
$157.59
持倉數
NoNoNo
EX7
extractive-manatee
事件損益
+$32.66
成交量
$145.00
持倉數
YesYes
AH8
AhghastBog
事件損益
+$23.67
成交量
$120.99
持倉數
Yes

常見問題

目前市場對「Pro Football: Ashton Jeanty 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，3.5+ rushing TDs 以 84% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 9.5+ rushing TDs（69.5%），以及 5.5+ rushing TDs（61%）。該市場總成交量已達 $8.6K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 9.5+ rushing TDs 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 69.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 21.9%，形成 -47.6% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

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