Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

根據「Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，No 以壓倒性的 63.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；Yes 以 36.5% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $163K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• No (63.5%)：No 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 64¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Yes (36.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Yes 保持著 36.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 37¢。

In a civil complaint filed in September 2026, a Cornell University student alleged that she was drugged and sexually assaulted in October 2024 by multiple members of the Chi Phi fraternity at the fraternity's house in Ithaca, New York. Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris and Scott Kretzschmar are the 7 individual defendants alleged in the September 2026 civil complaint to have participated in the alleged October 2024 sexual assault.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris or Scott Kretzschmar with a felony sex crime between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A felony sex crime refers to any offense classified as a felony and as a sex offense under the law of the charging jurisdiction, including any felony sex offense defined in Article 130 of the New York Penal Law.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：No 當前交易價為 63.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 55.4%，形成 -8.1% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Yes 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 36.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 44.6%——形成可觀的 +8.1% EV 差。