Age of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

根據「Age of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Under 45 以壓倒性的 4,250% 獲勝機率主導市場；45-54 以 4,250% 位居第二，55-64 以 4,250% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Under 45 (4,250%)：Under 45 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,250¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 45-54 (4,250%)：作為最可行的替代選項，45-54 保持著 4,250% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,250¢。
• 55-64 (4,250%)：以 4,250% 的機率位列第三，市場對 55-64 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 65-74 (4,250%)、75-84 (4,250%)，以及 85+ (4,250%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 65-74 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the age of the individual who formally wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president.

The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they accept the nomination. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth.

In the event that no individual has won and accepted such nomination by November 7, 2028, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources and official public records; however, a consensus of credible sources may suffice.