
Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire
核心摘要
根据「Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire 以压倒性的 8,525% 获胜概率主导市场;Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 8.5 以 5,005% 位居第二,Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $291.9K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire (8,525%):Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,525¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $112.9K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 8.5 (5,005%):作为最可行的替代选项,Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 8.5 保持着 5,005% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,005¢。
- Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5 (5,000%):以 5,000% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Veronica Burton: Points O/U 11.5 (5,000%)、Cecilia Zandalasini: Points O/U 9.5 (5,000%),以及 Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 9.5 (5,000%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Kayla Thornton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire | 8525.0% | $112.9K | 8525¢ | -8425¢ |
| 2 | Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 8.5 | 5005.0% | $182 | 5005¢ | -4905¢ |
| 3 | Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 4 | Veronica Burton: Points O/U 11.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 5 | Cecilia Zandalasini: Points O/U 9.5 | 5000.0% | $12 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 6 | Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 9.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 7 | Kayla Thornton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 5000.0% | $5 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 8 | Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 9 | Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 10 | Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5000.0% | $202 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 11 | Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | $63 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 12 | Carla Leite: Points O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 13 | Megan DiLeo: Points O/U 12.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 14 | Megan DiLeo: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 15 | Carla Leite: Assists O/U 6.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 16 | Kayla Thornton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 17 | Gabby Williams: Points O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 18 | Carla Leite: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 19 | Carla Leite: Points O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 20 | Megan DiLeo: Points O/U 11.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 21 | Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 22 | Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 6.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 23 | O/U 157.5 | 4600.0% | $68.6K | 4600¢ | -4500¢ |
| 24 | O/U 158.5 | 4550.0% | $12 | 4550¢ | -4450¢ |
| 25 | Spread -12.5 | 4150.0% | $14.8K | 4150¢ | -4050¢ |
| 26 | Spread -13.5 | 3500.0% | $19.2K | 3500¢ | -3400¢ |
| 27 | Spread -14.5 | 2850.0% | $92.7K | 2850¢ | -2750¢ |
| 28 | Spread -15.5 | 2850.0% | $3.4K | 2850¢ | -2750¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for September 22 at 10:00PM ET:
If the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to "Golden State Valkyries".
If the Portland Fire win, the market will resolve to "Portland Fire".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 22, 2026
- 11:43 PM——$3.00
Bought 5.769231 Over for Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire: O/U 157.5 at 0.52
- 11:39 PM——$5.00
Bought 9.803922 Golden State Valkyries for Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-14.5) at 0.51
- 11:36 PMSUsuntori$1.02
Bought 1.821429 Golden State Valkyries for Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-13.5) at 0.56
- 11:33 PMWIWindows11-Winner$1.00
Bought 2.040817 Under for Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire: O/U 157.5 at 0.49
- 11:33 PMWIWindows11-Winner$2.00
Bought 3.921569 Golden State Valkyries for Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-14.5) at 0.51
- 11:31 PMNInigiri99$500.00
Bought 1000 Portland Fire for Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-14.5) at 0.5
- 11:31 PMNInigiri99$500.00
Bought 1000 Portland Fire for Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-14.5) at 0.5
- 11:22 PM——$3.85
Sold 7.69 Golden State Valkyries for Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-14.5) at 0.5
- 11:13 PMWIWindows11-Winner$1.00
Bought 2.040817 Under for Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire: O/U 157.5 at 0.49
- 11:12 PMNInigiri99$56.84
Bought 116 Under for Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire: O/U 157.5 at 0.49
- 11:07 PMKIKISHI45$21.00
Bought 35 Golden State Valkyries for Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5) at 0.6
- 10:56 PMNInigiri99$9.31
Bought 19 Under for Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire: O/U 157.5 at 0.49
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire 以 8,525% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 8.5(5,005%),以及 Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5(5,000%)。该市场总成交量已达 $291.9K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
