Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?

根据「Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，↑$975B 以压倒性的 37.5% 获胜概率主导市场；↑$1.025T 以 8.5% 位居第二，↓$875B 以 4.5% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $82.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• ↑$975B (37.5%)：↑$975B 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 38¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $22.2K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• ↑$1.025T (8.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，↑$1.025T 保持着 8.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9¢。
• ↓$875B (4.5%)：以 4.5% 的概率位列第三，市场对 ↓$875B 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 49.5%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 ↑$1.125T (2.9%)、↑$1.525T (2.4%)，以及 ↓$825B (2.1%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 ↑$1.275T 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.

Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using official regular-hours trading prices published for the company’s listed equities on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).

If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be the relevant Market Cap figure displayed on https://www.nasdaq.com/ as well as official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：↑$975B 当前交易价为 37.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 25.3%，形成 -12.3% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 ↓$875B 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 4.5% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 18.1%——形成可观的 +13.6% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 ↓$825B（EV 差：+10%）以及 ↓$750B（EV 差：+7.7%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。