Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?

根据「Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31 以压倒性的 9,695% 获胜概率主导市场；September 30 以 9,465% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $401.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31 (9,695%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,695¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $91.1K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• September 30 (9,465%)：作为最可行的替代选项，September 30 保持着 9,465% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,465¢。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A “visit” refers to Netanyahu physically entering any of the five boroughs of New York City: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, or Staten Island.

Entering New York City’s territorial waters will not qualify. Merely transiting through New York City airspace will not qualify.

Landing at any airport within New York City will qualify only if Netanyahu leaves the airport.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.