Will Messi get a guard of honour?

根据「Will Messi get a guard of honour?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Yes 以压倒性的 7,100% 获胜概率主导市场；No 以 2,900% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Yes (7,100%)：Yes 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,100¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• No (2,900%)：作为最可行的替代选项，No 保持着 2,900% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2,900¢。

Lionel Messi is scheduled to play his final match for the Argentina men's national team against Benin at the Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires on October 6, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi receives a guard of honour on the playing surface at any point from the start of the pre-match ceremonies through the end of the post-match ceremonies at this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A guard of honour (also known as a pasillo) means two facing lines of people formed on the playing surface through which Messi walks or runs while being applauded. The lines may be formed by Argentina players, Benin players, coaching staff, former players, match officials, ball kids or any combination of them. The playing surface means the pitch and its surrounding area inside the perimeter advertising boards, including the technical areas. A single line, a huddle, players surrounding Messi, or applause without a corridor formation does not count.

If the match is cancelled or postponed beyond October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the match is postponed to a date on or before October 20, 2026, this market will resolve based on the rescheduled match.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official match footage and broadcast video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.