Will Humzh's subathon end by...?

根据「Will Humzh's subathon end by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，October 31 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；November 30 以 5,000% 位居第二，December 31 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• October 31 (5,000%)：October 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• November 30 (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，November 30 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
• December 31 (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 December 31 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 January 31 (5,000%)，以及 February 28 (5,000%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 January 31 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Humzh's 2026 subathon, which began on September 25, 2026, on his Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/humzh), ends by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The subathon will be considered to have ended when its countdown timer reaches zero and the subathon concludes, or at the time Humzh officially announces that the subathon is over before the timer runs out. If Humzh's Twitch channel is banned or suspended, the subathon will be considered to have ended only once Humzh officially confirms that it will not resume, or once the ban or suspension is confirmed to be permanent. Pauses of the countdown (e.g., while Humzh sleeps or takes a break), offline periods, and temporary stream interruptions do not count as the subathon ending, regardless of their length, unless Humzh officially announces that the subathon is over. Any later restart, extension after an official end, or new subathon will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Humzh's official Twitch broadcast and official social media accounts (e.g., https://x.com/humzhlol), together with the official subathon tracker (https://humzh.tv/subathon). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.