Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

根据「Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，No 以压倒性的 7,500% 获胜概率主导市场；Yes 以 2,500% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• No (7,500%)：No 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,500¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Yes (2,500%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Yes 保持着 2,500% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2,500¢。

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).