Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?

根据「Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31 以压倒性的 3,750% 获胜概率主导市场；October 31 以 1,500% 位居第二，September 30 以 650% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $33.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31 (3,750%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 3,750¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $16.2K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• October 31 (1,500%)：作为最可行的替代选项，October 31 保持着 1,500% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,500¢。
• September 30 (650%)：以 650% 的概率位列第三，市场对 September 30 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

Ukrainian airspace has been closed to air traffic since the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation on February 24, 2022. Boryspil International Airport (KBP / UKBB), located near Kyiv, suspended all routine operations immediately following the start of hostilities, and routine and general flights remain suspended.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one manned aircraft successfully lands at or takes off from Boryspil International Airport between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Eligible flights include any manned fixed-wing aircraft or rotorcraft (helicopter), regardless of registration, owner, or purpose (e.g., commercial passenger, cargo, military transport, diplomatic or state flight, technical ferry, or emergency landing).

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, drones, or loitering munitions), touch-and-go passes without a full touchdown and stop or taxi, and landings or departures occurring outside the physical boundaries of Boryspil International Airport will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be verified radar and ADS-B flight tracking data (e.g., Flightradar24, ADS-B Exchange) and official announcements from Boryspil International Airport, the State Aviation Administration of Ukraine, or the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.