Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
核心摘要
根据「Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 以压倒性的 6,170% 获胜概率主导市场；No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 以 3,195% 位居第二，Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate 以 360% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $86.8K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate (6,170%)：No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 6,170¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $980 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate (3,195%)：作为最可行的替代选项，No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 保持着 3,195% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3,195¢。
- Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate (360%)：以 360% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate (280%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 6170.0% | $980 | 6170¢ | -6070¢ |
| 2 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 3195.0% | $17.8K | 3195¢ | -3095¢ |
| 3 | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 360.0% | $39.5K | 360¢ | -260¢ |
| 4 | Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 280.0% | $28.5K | 280¢ | -180¢ |
裁决规则
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Oct 13, 2026
- 12:41 PM——$2.20
Sold 55.1 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.04
- 12:41 PMXIxinyuan$61.29
Sold 161.29 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.38
- 12:41 PM——$17.54
Sold 54.8 Yes for Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.32
- 12:41 PM——$1.65
Sold 55.12 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.03
- 12:41 PMXIxinyuan$160.00
Sold 500 Yes for Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.32
- 12:08 PMTHthecaricature$8.00
Bought 200 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.04
- 12:04 PMTHthecaricature$6.00
Bought 200 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.03
- 10:53 AM0X0xD324e20e3462d859a2913C5bfD162Ed7F9Aeb23c-1773152871743$10.05
Bought 16.207456 Yes for Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.62
- 10:53 AM——$5.17
Sold 16.15 Yes for Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.32
- 10:53 AM——$0.65
Sold 16.24 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.04
- 10:53 AM——$0.49
Sold 16.23 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.03
- 09:15 AMV2v2boring$1.64
Bought 1.709845 No for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.96
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 以 6,170% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate（3,195%），以及 Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate（360%）。该市场总成交量已达 $86.8K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。