Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

根据「Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，No Hormuz Agreement 以压倒性的 8,835% 获胜概率主导市场；Hormuz Agreement; D Senate 以 630% 位居第二，Hormuz Agreement; R Senate 以 405% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $525.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• No Hormuz Agreement (8,835%)：No Hormuz Agreement 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,835¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $168.0K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Hormuz Agreement; D Senate (630%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Hormuz Agreement; D Senate 保持着 630% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 630¢。
• Hormuz Agreement; R Senate (405%)：以 405% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Hormuz Agreement; R Senate 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.

This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; D Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.

This market will resolve to "No Hormuz Agreement" immediately if a Hormuz Agreement is not announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Hormuz Agreement: A "Hormuz Agreement" will be considered to have occurred if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.

A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Hormuz Agreement component to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.

Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.

Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, the Hormuz Agreement component will remain undetermined until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, the Hormuz Agreement component will be determined based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for the Hormuz Agreement component will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Senate: A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.

The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.

All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.

For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.

Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for the Senate component will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.