Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee

$69.1K Vol
2026年9月9日
Active
概率趋势
David Morales 88.5%
Brett Smiley 12.5%

核心摘要

根据「Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，David Morales 以压倒性的 8,050% 获胜概率主导市场；Brett Smiley 以 1,950% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $69.1K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • David Morales (8,050%)：David Morales 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,050¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $39.4K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Brett Smiley (1,950%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Brett Smiley 保持着 1,950% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,950¢。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1David Morales8050.0%$39.4K8050¢-7950¢
2Brett Smiley1950.0%$29.7K1950¢-1850¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the Providence, Rhode Island Mayoral election. The Democratic primary will take place on September 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Sep 8, 2026

  • 12:41 AM
    JIjiangyupeng01
    $9.78

    Sold 81.5 Yes for Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.12

Sep 7, 2026

  • 11:25 PM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 8.333334 No for Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.12

  • 08:19 PM
    BEbernardbulletin
    $8.42

    Bought 70.16 Yes for Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.12

  • 06:46 PM
    SOsollydisa
    $99.70

    Bought 906.380832 No for Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.11

  • 02:10 PM
    JIjiangyupeng01
    $4.36

    Sold 39.6 No for Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.11

  • 02:10 PM
    JIjiangyupeng01
    $0.87

    Sold 7.25 Yes for Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.12

  • 02:10 PM
    0X0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
    $70.58

    Bought 81.13 No for Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.87

  • 02:10 PM
    0X0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
    $279.64

    Bought 321.42 No for Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.87

  • 02:10 PM
    BAbalthazar
    $26.00

    Sold 200 Yes for Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.13

  • 02:10 PM
    GOgodblessme2026
    $34.80

    Bought 40 No for Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.87

  • 02:10 PM
    JUJustClickeverywhere
    $98.94

    Bought 112.43 No for Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.88

  • 02:10 PM
    VIVictorLudorum
    $14.19

    Bought 16.31 No for Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? at 0.87

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
事件盈亏
+$5,793.66
成交量
$11,704.36
持仓数
NoNo
SO2
sollydisa
事件盈亏
+$42.94
成交量
$6,535.96
持仓数
NoYes
JA3
JAMJAMJAM4
事件盈亏
-$65.22
成交量
$4,348.00
持仓数
Yes
MR4
mrworldwide
事件盈亏
+$88.07
成交量
$4,221.78
持仓数
YesNo
BE5
bernardbulletin
事件盈亏
+$1,272.66
成交量
$4,114.69
持仓数
YesYes
PA6
pantomime
事件盈亏
+$65.13
成交量
$3,703.74
持仓数
NoYes
LE7
LeRoiSoleil
事件盈亏
+$12.70
成交量
$1,709.27
持仓数
Yes
BA8
balthazar
事件盈亏
+$532.00
成交量
$1,400.00
持仓数
YesYes

常见问题

当前市场对「Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，David Morales 以 8,050% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Brett Smiley（1,950%）。该市场总成交量已达 $69.1K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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