Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

根据「Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Joe Biden 以压倒性的 9,950% 获胜概率主导市场；Hakeem Jeffries 以 8,550% 位居第二，Jerome Powell 以 7,400% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $1.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Joe Biden (9,950%)：Joe Biden 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,950¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $599 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Hakeem Jeffries (8,550%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Hakeem Jeffries 保持着 8,550% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,550¢。
• Jerome Powell (7,400%)：以 7,400% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Jerome Powell 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Abdul El-Sayed (7,400%)、Kathy Hochul (7,400%)，以及 Letitia James (7,400%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 J.B. Pritzker 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.

Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.

A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.

A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").

A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.