Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?

根据「Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Demon1 以压倒性的 7,450% 获胜概率主导市场；Primmie 以 5,950% 位居第二，something 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Demon1 (7,450%)：Demon1 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,450¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Primmie (5,950%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Primmie 保持着 5,950% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,950¢。
• something (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 something 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 BuZz (5,000%)、Meteor (5,000%)，以及 Jemkin (5,000%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Cryocells 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player departs the listed team's active roster on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

For the purpose of this market, the listed player is considered to have "left" if they are officially removed from the listed team's active roster — including a transfer to another team, release, benching to inactive/reserve, loan to another team, retirement, or any other departure from the active lineup — as reflected on the team's Liquipedia page (https://liquipedia.net/valorant). The player being a stand-in for another team while still rostered does not by itself count.

The change must occur on or before the deadline and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the departure appears in the resolution source, it must remain in effect for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the departure itself occurred on or before the deadline. If the change is reverted before 48 hours have elapsed, it will not count toward resolution.

A name change or alias referring to the same player on the same team does not count as leaving. Temporary absence for a single match (with the player remaining on the roster) does not count.

If the listed team disbands, or the listed player and the team part ways because the roster is dissolved, this will count as the player leaving and resolve "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.