When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?

根据「When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Aug 8 or earlier 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；Aug 9-10 以 5,000% 位居第二，Aug 11-12 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Aug 8 or earlier (5,000%)：Aug 8 or earlier 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Aug 9-10 (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Aug 9-10 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
• Aug 11-12 (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Aug 11-12 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Aug 13 or later (5,000%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Aug 13 or later 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).

"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."

Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.

If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.