The International 2026: Winning Region

根据「The International 2026: Winning Region」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Europe 以压倒性的 2,500% 获胜概率主导市场；CIS 以 2,500% 位居第二，China 以 2,500% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Europe (2,500%)：Europe 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 2,500¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• CIS (2,500%)：作为最可行的替代选项，CIS 保持着 2,500% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2,500¢。
• China (2,500%)：以 2,500% 的概率位列第三，市场对 China 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 North America (2,500%)、South America (2,500%)，以及 Southeast Asia (2,450%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 North America 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the region of the team that wins The International 2026 (TI 15), scheduled for August 13, 2026 to August 23, 2026, in Shanghai, China.

Each team's region is determined by the region under which it is listed on Liquipedia's Dota 2 Teams Portal (https://liquipedia.net/dota2/Portal:Teams) as of the conclusion of the event. The recognized regions are those used on that page: Europe, CIS, China, Southeast Asia, North America, and South America.

This market resolves to the region under which the team that wins the Grand Final is listed on the Teams Portal.

If the winning team is not listed on the Teams Portal, its region will be determined by the regional affiliation on the team's own Liquipedia page.

If The International 2026 is canceled or no champion is crowned by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source will be Liquipedia's Dota 2 Teams Portal (https://liquipedia.net/dota2/Portal:Teams); a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.