Which mobs will eliminate Jynxzi, Ron or Los?

根据「Which mobs will eliminate Jynxzi, Ron or Los?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Blaze 以压倒性的 50% 获胜概率主导市场；Polar Bear 以 5.8% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $89.2K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Blaze (50%)：Blaze 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 50¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Polar Bear (5.8%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Polar Bear 保持着 5.8% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 6¢。

Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on October 5, 2026, in which they will attempt to defeat the Ender Dragon in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, without any of the three dying in-game.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message containing the specified mob's name is displayed for any of Jynxzi, Ron, or Los following an in-game death during the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any death message containing the specified mob's name will count, including its plural and possessive forms, and regardless of how the mob caused the in-game death. The exact mob name must appear; a death message naming a different mob whose name contains the specified mob's name will not count. For example, an in-game death to a Wither Skeleton will not resolve "Skeleton" to "Yes," and an in-game death to a Cave Spider will not resolve "Spider" to "Yes."

An in-game death seeming to be caused by the specified mob will not count if the mob's name does not appear in the death message. If a mob has been renamed, this market will resolve based on the actual mob type that caused the in-game death rather than the name displayed in the death message.

A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count.

Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by any of the three players. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death.

Only in-game deaths of the three accounts played by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos will count. In-game deaths of any other player in the world, including guests, moderators, or co-streamers playing on their own accounts, will not count. It does not matter who is physically at the controls when an in-game death occurs; only whose account died in-game.

Deaths in any Minecraft world played as part of the marathon will count, including restarts on new seeds, and including if Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos modify or abandon the objectives of the challenge, change the ruleset, or play outside of Hardcore mode at any point.

Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the three players is broadcasting the marathon live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify.

This market will remain open until the marathon is declared complete, abandoned, or otherwise finally ended by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, or Los Pollos, regardless of whether the challenge is completed. If the marathon ends without a qualifying in-game death, or if the marathon is cancelled or never begins, this market will resolve to "No". If the marathon is still ongoing as of November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on in-game deaths that have occurred up to that time."

The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the marathon on Jynxzi's, StableRonaldo's, and Los Pollos's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：Blaze 当前交易价为 50%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 38%，形成 -12% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Polar Bear 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 5.8% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 10.3%——形成可观的 +4.5% EV 差。