Which club will Gilberto Mora play for next?

$1.8K Vol
2027年2月2日
Active
概率趋势
PSG 45.6%
RB Leipzig 11.8%
Manchester United 9.3%
AC Milan 9.2%
Real Madrid 5.9%

核心摘要

根据「Which club will Gilberto Mora play for next?」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,PSG 以压倒性的 4,635% 获胜概率主导市场;RB Leipzig 以 1,185% 位居第二,AC Milan 以 920% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $1.8K,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • PSG (4,635%):PSG 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,635¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $204 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • RB Leipzig (1,185%):作为最可行的替代选项,RB Leipzig 保持着 1,185% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,185¢。
  • AC Milan (920%):以 920% 的概率位列第三,市场对 AC Milan 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 Real Madrid (595%)、Liverpool (540%),以及 Manchester United (475%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Barcelona 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1PSG4635.0%$2044635¢-4535¢
2RB Leipzig1185.0%$2191185¢-1085¢
3AC Milan920.0%$199920¢-820¢
4Real Madrid595.0%$138595¢-495¢
5Liverpool540.0%$233540¢-440¢
6Manchester United475.0%$164475¢-375¢
7Barcelona390.0%$173390¢-290¢
8Atletico Madrid390.0%$138390¢-290¢
9Manchester City385.0%$138385¢-285¢
10Bayern Munich385.0%$84385¢-285¢
11Arsenal310.0%$158310¢-210¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to the next club Gilberto Mora officially joins by February 2, 2027 at 2:00 PM ET.

If Gilberto Mora does not officially join a new club by February 2, 2027 at 2:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Club Tijuana".

If Gilberto Mora signs a contract that includes a delayed transfer or loan-back clause requiring him to remain at Club Tijuana for a specified period before joining another club, this market will resolve to the club he is officially contracted to join following that period.

If Gilberto Mora joins a club that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".

If Gilberto Mora is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional club by February 2, 2027 at 2:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Transfers or assignments between the current club's senior team and reserve or affiliate teams will not be considered for this market.

An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Club Tijuana and/or the acquiring club. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

常见问题

当前市场对「Which club will Gilberto Mora play for next?」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,PSG 以 4,635% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 RB Leipzig(1,185%),以及 AC Milan(920%)。该市场总成交量已达 $1.8K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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