Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?

$6.4M Vol
2026年9月1日
Active
概率趋势
Las Vegas Raiders 92.3%
Dallas Cowboys 5.0%
Philadelphia Eagles 3.4%
San Francisco 49ers 1.4%
New York Jets 1.3%

核心摘要

根据「Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Las Vegas Raiders 以压倒性的 93.5% 获胜概率主导市场；Dallas Cowboys 以 2.9% 位居第二，New York Jets 以 1% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $6.4M，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Las Vegas Raiders (93.5%)：Las Vegas Raiders 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 94¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $21.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Dallas Cowboys (2.9%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Dallas Cowboys 保持着 2.9% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3¢。
  • New York Jets (1%)：以 1% 的概率位列第三，市场对 New York Jets 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 2.7%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 Jacksonville Jaguars (0.3%)、Philadelphia Eagles (0.3%)，以及 Detroit Lions (0.2%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Chicago Bears 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Las Vegas Raiders93.5%$21.8K94¢7¢
2Dallas Cowboys2.9%$85.8K3¢97¢
3New York Jets1.0%$1.2M1¢99¢
4Jacksonville Jaguars0.3%$437.1K0¢100¢
5Philadelphia Eagles0.3%$13.7K0¢100¢
6Detroit Lions0.2%$15.8K0¢100¢
7Chicago Bears0.1%$300.5K0¢100¢
8San Francisco 49ers0.1%$620.3K0¢100¢
9Arizona Cardinals0.1%$73.4K0¢100¢
10Atlanta Falcons0.1%$8.7K0¢100¢
11Baltimore Ravens0.1%$11.9K0¢100¢
12Buffalo Bills0.1%$7.7K0¢100¢
13Carolina Panthers0.1%$846.3K0¢100¢
14Cincinnati Bengals0.1%$8.6K0¢100¢
15Cleveland Browns0.1%$6.3K0¢100¢
16Denver Broncos0.1%$5.0K0¢100¢
17Green Bay Packers0.1%$30.5K0¢100¢
18Houston Texans0.1%$6.0K0¢100¢
19Indianapolis Colts0.1%$1.2M0¢100¢
20Kansas City Chiefs0.1%$34.6K0¢100¢
21Los Angeles Chargers0.1%$5.3K0¢100¢
22Los Angeles Rams0.1%$406.0K0¢100¢
23Miami Dolphins0.1%$4.0K0¢100¢
24Minnesota Vikings0.1%$61.3K0¢100¢
25New England Patriots0.1%$6.9K0¢100¢
26New Orleans Saints0.1%$7.1K0¢100¢
27New York Giants0.1%$4.2K0¢100¢
28Pittsburgh Steelers0.1%$7.1K0¢100¢
29Seattle Seahawks0.1%$7.5K0¢100¢
30Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.1%$69.7K0¢100¢
31Tennessee Titans0.1%$889.0K0¢100¢
32Washington Commanders0.1%$5.3K0¢100¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to the next team Maxx Crosby officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If Maxx Crosby does not officially join a new team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Las Vegas Raiders”.

If Maxx Crosby joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If Maxx Crosby is released and is not signed by another team, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Transfers or assignments between a team’s senior team and reserve or affiliate teams will not be considered for this market.

An official signing announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Las Vegas Raiders and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最被高估的结果：Las Vegas Raiders 当前交易价为 93.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 73.3%，形成 -20.2% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
  • 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Baltimore Ravens 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 0.1% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 16.8%——形成可观的 +16.7% EV 差。
  • 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Arizona Cardinals（EV 差：+16.1%）以及 Cleveland Browns（EV 差：+15.1%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Las Vegas Raiders93.5%73.3%-20.2%
Dallas Cowboys2.9%3.0%+0.2%
New York Jets1.0%0.5%-0.5%
Jacksonville Jaguars0.3%0.3%-0.0%
Philadelphia Eagles0.3%1.0%+0.7%
Detroit Lions0.2%0.1%-0.1%
Chicago Bears0.1%8.7%+8.5%
San Francisco 49ers0.1%0.5%+0.3%
Arizona Cardinals0.1%16.2%+16.1%
Atlanta Falcons0.1%14.0%+13.9%
Baltimore RavensBest EV0.1%16.8%+16.7%
Buffalo Bills0.1%4.8%+4.7%
Carolina Panthers0.1%10.7%+10.6%
Cincinnati Bengals0.1%7.0%+7.0%
Cleveland Browns0.1%15.2%+15.1%
Denver Broncos0.1%8.6%+8.5%
Green Bay Packers0.1%14.7%+14.6%
Houston Texans0.1%5.0%+4.9%
Indianapolis Colts0.1%5.5%+5.5%
Kansas City Chiefs0.1%4.4%+4.4%
Los Angeles Chargers0.1%11.7%+11.7%
Los Angeles Rams0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Miami Dolphins0.1%4.6%+4.5%
Minnesota Vikings0.1%8.3%+8.2%
New England Patriots0.1%8.3%+8.3%
New Orleans Saints0.1%4.6%+4.5%
New York Giants0.1%4.4%+4.3%
Pittsburgh Steelers0.1%4.5%+4.5%
Seattle Seahawks0.1%2.4%+2.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.1%10.0%+9.9%
Tennessee Titans0.1%0.3%+0.2%
Washington Commanders0.1%7.6%+7.5%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Aug 30, 2026

  • 12:34 PM
    GAGaditima
    $0.00

    Bought 100 Yes for Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next? at 0

  • 09:30 AM
    AKakko123
    $0.00

    Sold 79.13 Yes for Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next? at 0

  • 09:08 AM
    0X0x806F374fCa06CA7C499C232f64804A14b06f707F-1733306667262
    $19.08

    Bought 19.07625 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next? at 1

  • 08:15 AM
    PPPPMT
    $1.65

    Sold 33 Yes for Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next? at 0.05

  • 05:05 AM
    WEwebb50008
    $10.03

    Bought 10.449302 Yes for Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? at 0.96

  • 03:58 AM
    0X0x79a185D3c116f7E80E97ce164329003fe87D9371-1733943358007
    $14.06

    Bought 14.056 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next? at 1

  • 01:40 AM
    TEtest-account3
    $46.64

    Bought 46.636 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next? at 1

  • 01:40 AM
    TEtest-account3
    $46.64

    Bought 46.643 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next? at 1

  • 01:40 AM
    TEtest-account3
    $46.64

    Bought 46.639666 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next? at 1

  • 01:40 AM
    TEtest-account3
    $46.17

    Bought 46.6363 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next? at 0.99

  • 01:40 AM
    TEtest-account3
    $46.64

    Bought 46.636 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next? at 1

  • 01:40 AM
    ——
    $45.24

    Bought 46.635677 Yes for Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? at 0.97

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

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常见问题

当前市场对「Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Las Vegas Raiders 以 93.5% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Dallas Cowboys（2.9%），以及 New York Jets（1%）。该市场总成交量已达 $6.4M，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一轮测算显示，Baltimore Ravens 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 0.1%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 16.8%——形成 +16.7% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。

市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？

是的——数据显示市场对 Las Vegas Raiders 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 93.5%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 73.3%，形成 -20.2% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。

长尾数据中是否藏有高价值的黑马选项？

当然有。除了头部结果之外，我们的模型在排名靠后的选项中发现了被低估的潜力。Arizona Cardinals 拥有 +16.1% 的正 EV 差，Cleveland Browns 则为 +15.1%。尽管量化层面更有支撑，这些合约仍被实时订单簿低估。

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