What price will Bitcoin hit on September 26?
核心摘要
根据「What price will Bitcoin hit on September 26?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，↑ 85,000 以压倒性的 345% 获胜概率主导市场；↓ 83,000 以 145% 位居第二，↑ 86,000 以 55% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $98.1K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- ↑ 85,000 (345%)：↑ 85,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 345¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $19.1K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- ↓ 83,000 (145%)：作为最可行的替代选项，↓ 83,000 保持着 145% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 145¢。
- ↑ 86,000 (55%)：以 55% 的概率位列第三，市场对 ↑ 86,000 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 ↓ 81,000 (50%)、↑ 90,000 (45%)，以及 ↑ 89,000 (45%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 ↑ 88,000 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↑ 85,000 | 345.0% | $19.1K | 345¢ | -245¢ |
| 2 | ↓ 83,000 | 145.0% | $28.4K | 145¢ | -45¢ |
| 3 | ↑ 86,000 | 55.0% | $6.3K | 55¢ | 45¢ |
| 4 | ↓ 81,000 | 50.0% | $4.5K | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 5 | ↑ 90,000 | 45.0% | $415 | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 6 | ↑ 89,000 | 45.0% | $415 | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 7 | ↑ 88,000 | 45.0% | $1.1K | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 8 | ↓ 82,000 | 25.0% | $32.1K | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 9 | ↓ 78,000 | 25.0% | — | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 10 | ↑ 87,000 | 10.0% | $3.3K | 10¢ | 90¢ |
| 11 | ↓ 77,000 | 10.0% | $415 | 10¢ | 90¢ |
| 12 | ↓ 76,000 | 10.0% | $15 | 10¢ | 90¢ |
| 13 | ↑ 91,000 | 5.0% | $79 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 14 | ↓ 80,000 | 5.0% | $1.1K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 15 | ↓ 79,000 | 5.0% | $815 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
What price will Bitcoin hit on September 26?
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 27, 2026
- 12:17 AMALaloh-a$0.00
Bought 913.333334 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on September 26? at 0
- 12:16 AMFAFacaie$67.00
Bought 67 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on September 26? at 1
- 12:16 AMFAFacaie$786.81
Bought 786.81 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on September 26? at 1
- 12:15 AMALaloh-a$1.17
Bought 58.48 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $83,000 on September 26? at 0.02
- 12:15 AM0X0xa032972B1f36B0019a05b5CF83fB40c341AA52dd-1733340860834$13.18
Bought 13.1825 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on September 26? at 1
- 12:02 AMACacristh$1.00
Bought 1.055962 No for Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 26? at 0.95
Sep 26, 2026
- 11:55 PMTRtrader-9070ab4c$1.94
Bought 1.997941 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $83,000 on September 26? at 0.97
- 11:55 PM——$1.23
Bought 1.266736 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $83,000 on September 26? at 0.97
- 11:55 PMSHSharky6999$388.00
Bought 400 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $83,000 on September 26? at 0.97
- 11:40 PM0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396$1.12
Bought 18.67 Yes for Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 26? at 0.06
- 11:35 PMSUsuntori$14.02
Bought 14.454733 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $83,000 on September 26? at 0.97
- 11:34 PMTStsddd$2.01
Bought 2.08986 No for Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 26? at 0.96
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常见问题
当前市场对「What price will Bitcoin hit on September 26?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，↑ 85,000 以 345% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 ↓ 83,000（145%），以及 ↑ 86,000（55%）。该市场总成交量已达 $98.1K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。