What price will Bitcoin hit on October 11?
核心摘要
根据「What price will Bitcoin hit on October 11?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，↑ 85,000 以压倒性的 775% 获胜概率主导市场；↓ 82,000 以 445% 位居第二，↑ 86,000 以 255% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $271.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- ↑ 85,000 (775%)：↑ 85,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 775¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $31.7K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- ↓ 82,000 (445%)：作为最可行的替代选项，↓ 82,000 保持着 445% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 445¢。
- ↑ 86,000 (255%)：以 255% 的概率位列第三，市场对 ↑ 86,000 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 ↑ 87,000 (115%)、↓ 81,000 (85%)，以及 ↓ 80,000 (80%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 ↑ 88,000 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↑ 85,000 | 775.0% | $31.7K | 775¢ | -675¢ |
| 2 | ↓ 82,000 | 445.0% | $54.9K | 445¢ | -345¢ |
| 3 | ↑ 86,000 | 255.0% | $13.1K | 255¢ | -155¢ |
| 4 | ↑ 87,000 | 115.0% | $1.3K | 115¢ | -15¢ |
| 5 | ↓ 81,000 | 85.0% | $9.6K | 85¢ | 15¢ |
| 6 | ↓ 80,000 | 80.0% | $5.2K | 80¢ | 20¢ |
| 7 | ↑ 88,000 | 65.0% | $2.7K | 65¢ | 35¢ |
| 8 | ↑ 90,000 | 30.0% | $162 | 30¢ | 70¢ |
| 9 | ↑ 89,000 | 25.0% | $15 | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 10 | ↓ 78,000 | 25.0% | $40 | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 11 | ↓ 76,000 | 25.0% | $15 | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 12 | ↓ 79,000 | 10.0% | $260 | 10¢ | 90¢ |
| 13 | ↓ 77,000 | 5.0% | $35 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 14 | ↓ 75,000 | 5.0% | $15 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
What price will Bitcoin hit on October 11?
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Oct 11, 2026
- 01:29 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$213.40
Bought 220 No for Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 11? at 0.97
- 01:27 PM0X0x2dc3DE961515f1A8cb73476c3e5f51bc674411Df-1770817707342$2.00
Bought 13.333334 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 11? at 0.15
- 01:27 PM0X0x2dc3DE961515f1A8cb73476c3e5f51bc674411Df-1770817707342$2.00
Bought 8 Yes for Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 11? at 0.25
- 01:16 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$355.24
Bought 428 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 11? at 0.83
- 01:03 PM19196874353278$4.83
Bought 5.75 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 11? at 0.84
- 01:03 PM19196874353278$4.83
Bought 5.75 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 11? at 0.84
- 12:51 PM0X0x7FA6e33Ce44210455454350aB623ABa57c93401C-1761739408103$17.13
Bought 571.066667 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 11? at 0.03
- 12:43 PMKOKOMZY$36.10
Bought 212.33 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 11? at 0.17
- 12:43 PMKOKOMZY$14.74
Bought 52.65 Yes for Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 11? at 0.28
- 12:40 PM0X0x9A6EBb386Fbb9d6725BfF4fE210666C3A9411711-1769286611769$1.85
Bought 46.153847 Yes for Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 11? at 0.04
- 12:39 PM0X0x09905036062d1B3F2F8969BA653DA8015910f36f-1767933900208$5.00
Bought 16.666667 Yes for Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 11? at 0.3
- 12:39 PM0X0x9A6EBb386Fbb9d6725BfF4fE210666C3A9411711-1769286611769$5.87
Bought 146.829269 Yes for Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 11? at 0.04
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常见问题
当前市场对「What price will Bitcoin hit on October 11?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，↑ 85,000 以 775% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 ↓ 82,000（445%），以及 ↑ 86,000（255%）。该市场总成交量已达 $271.7K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。