What price will Bitcoin hit on October 10?
核心摘要
根据「What price will Bitcoin hit on October 10?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，↑ 84,000 以压倒性的 390% 获胜概率主导市场；↓ 82,000 以 335% 位居第二，↑ 85,000 以 60% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $107.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- ↑ 84,000 (390%)：↑ 84,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 390¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $16.7K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- ↓ 82,000 (335%)：作为最可行的替代选项，↓ 82,000 保持着 335% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 335¢。
- ↑ 85,000 (60%)：以 60% 的概率位列第三，市场对 ↑ 85,000 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 ↑ 86,000 (35%)、↓ 81,000 (35%)，以及 ↑ 89,000 (30%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 ↑ 90,000 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↑ 84,000 | 390.0% | $16.7K | 390¢ | -290¢ |
| 2 | ↓ 82,000 | 335.0% | $19.1K | 335¢ | -235¢ |
| 3 | ↑ 85,000 | 60.0% | $19.3K | 60¢ | 40¢ |
| 4 | ↑ 86,000 | 35.0% | $10.2K | 35¢ | 65¢ |
| 5 | ↓ 81,000 | 35.0% | $9.3K | 35¢ | 65¢ |
| 6 | ↑ 89,000 | 30.0% | $6.4K | 30¢ | 70¢ |
| 7 | ↑ 90,000 | 25.0% | $20 | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 8 | ↓ 77,000 | 20.0% | $20 | 20¢ | 80¢ |
| 9 | ↓ 76,000 | 20.0% | $350 | 20¢ | 80¢ |
| 10 | ↓ 75,000 | 20.0% | $20 | 20¢ | 80¢ |
| 11 | ↓ 80,000 | 15.0% | $5.7K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 12 | ↑ 88,000 | 10.0% | $7.3K | 10¢ | 90¢ |
| 13 | ↑ 87,000 | 5.0% | $8.1K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 14 | ↓ 79,000 | 5.0% | $977 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 15 | ↓ 78,000 | 5.0% | $30 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
What price will Bitcoin hit on October 10?
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Oct 10, 2026
- 02:11 PMQUQuantumLeapy$1.70
Bought 5 No for Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 10? at 0.34
- 02:10 PMQUQuantumLeapy$1.70
Bought 5 No for Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 10? at 0.34
- 02:10 PMQUQuantumLeapy$1.70
Bought 5 No for Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 10? at 0.34
- 02:10 PMQUQuantumLeapy$1.70
Bought 5 No for Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 10? at 0.34
- 02:10 PMQUQuantumLeapy$1.70
Bought 5 No for Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 10? at 0.34
- 02:10 PMQUQuantumLeapy$1.70
Bought 5 No for Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 10? at 0.34
- 02:09 PMTStsddd$2.00
Bought 2.272725 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 10? at 0.88
- 02:09 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$25.68
Bought 214 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 10? at 0.12
- 02:07 PMBAbabybaby1234$0.00
Bought 500 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 10? at 0
- 02:06 PMBAbabybaby1234$0.00
Bought 500 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 10? at 0
- 02:05 PMQUQuantumLeapy$1.65
Bought 5 No for Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 10? at 0.33
- 02:04 PM0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396$138.31
Bought 864.4375 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 10? at 0.16
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常见问题
当前市场对「What price will Bitcoin hit on October 10?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，↑ 84,000 以 390% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 ↓ 82,000（335%），以及 ↑ 85,000（60%）。该市场总成交量已达 $107.3K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。