What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
核心摘要
根据「What price will Bitcoin hit in October?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，↑ 85,000 以压倒性的 9,040% 获胜概率主导市场；↓ 82,500 以 8,200% 位居第二，↑ 87,500 以 7,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $285.2K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- ↑ 85,000 (9,040%)：↑ 85,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,040¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $29.0K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- ↓ 82,500 (8,200%)：作为最可行的替代选项，↓ 82,500 保持着 8,200% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,200¢。
- ↑ 87,500 (7,000%)：以 7,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 ↑ 87,500 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 ↓ 80,000 (5,750%)、↑ 90,000 (5,150%)，以及 ↓ 77,500 (3,850%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 ↑ 92,500 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↑ 85,000 | 9040.0% | $29.0K | 9040¢ | -8940¢ |
| 2 | ↓ 82,500 | 8200.0% | $16.0K | 8200¢ | -8100¢ |
| 3 | ↑ 87,500 | 7000.0% | $20.5K | 7000¢ | -6900¢ |
| 4 | ↓ 80,000 | 5750.0% | $10.9K | 5750¢ | -5650¢ |
| 5 | ↑ 90,000 | 5150.0% | $6.7K | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 6 | ↓ 77,500 | 3850.0% | $8.8K | 3850¢ | -3750¢ |
| 7 | ↑ 92,500 | 3550.0% | $4.4K | 3550¢ | -3450¢ |
| 8 | ↓ 75,000 | 2650.0% | $21.3K | 2650¢ | -2550¢ |
| 9 | ↑ 95,000 | 2450.0% | $22.9K | 2450¢ | -2350¢ |
| 10 | ↑ 97,500 | 1750.0% | $11.3K | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 11 | ↓ 72,500 | 1650.0% | $6.2K | 1650¢ | -1550¢ |
| 12 | ↓ 70,000 | 1250.0% | $12.3K | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 13 | ↑ 100,000 | 950.0% | $16.2K | 950¢ | -850¢ |
| 14 | ↓ 67,500 | 850.0% | $24.6K | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 15 | ↑ 102,500 | 450.0% | $5.7K | 450¢ | -350¢ |
| 16 | ↓ 65,000 | 440.0% | $4.9K | 440¢ | -340¢ |
| 17 | ↓ 62,500 | 385.0% | $17.1K | 385¢ | -285¢ |
| 18 | ↑ 105,000 | 290.0% | $12.7K | 290¢ | -190¢ |
| 19 | ↓ 60,000 | 255.0% | $24.4K | 255¢ | -155¢ |
| 20 | ↑ 150,000 | 25.0% | $9.2K | 25¢ | 75¢ |
裁决规则
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Oct 1, 2026
- 01:14 PMFTftrxc64afn$42.00
Bought 100 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? at 0.42
- 01:14 PMFTftrxc64afn$42.00
Bought 100 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? at 0.42
- 01:14 PMCACactus-001$890.00
Bought 1000 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? at 0.89
- 01:11 PMASasdfasdfxs$20.24
Bought 183.99 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? at 0.11
- 01:11 PM0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396$4.97
Bought 124.210527 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October? at 0.04
- 01:11 PMHUhuaKxian$4.20
Bought 105 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October? at 0.04
- 01:10 PMASasdfasdfxs$65.45
Bought 595 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? at 0.11
- 01:10 PMCACactus-001$4.45
Bought 5 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? at 0.89
- 01:10 PMFTftrxc64afn$9.60
Bought 10 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October? at 0.96
- 01:09 PMASasdfasdfxs$36.36
Bought 303 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? at 0.12
- 01:07 PMASasdfasdfxs$22.80
Bought 190 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? at 0.12
- 01:06 PMASasdfasdfxs$27.17
Bought 247 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? at 0.11
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常见问题
当前市场对「What price will Bitcoin hit in October?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，↑ 85,000 以 9,040% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 ↓ 82,500（8,200%），以及 ↑ 87,500（7,000%）。该市场总成交量已达 $285.2K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。