Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner

根据「Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Labor 以压倒性的 4,900% 获胜概率主导市场；Liberal–National 以 4,200% 位居第二，Greens 以 3,500% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Labor (4,900%)：Labor 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,900¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Liberal–National (4,200%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Liberal–National 保持着 4,200% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,200¢。
• Greens (3,500%)：以 3,500% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Greens 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 One Nation (3,500%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 One Nation 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Council (Victoria's upper house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all Legislative Council seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, including members elected from joint Liberal–National groups, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.

Each Legislative Council seat will be attributed to the party under whose name the elected candidate, or the elected candidate's group, appeared on the ballot paper.

Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the total number of Legislative Council seats won across all eight electoral regions. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of formal first-preference votes received in the Legislative Council election across all eight electoral regions, counting both above-the-line votes for the party's group and below-the-line first-preference votes for its candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, including the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).