UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)
核心摘要
根据「UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Fight won by KO/TKO? 以压倒性的 41% 获胜概率主导市场；Fight won by submission? 以 34.5% 位居第二，Fight won by decision? 以 26% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $209.6K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Fight won by KO/TKO? (41%)：Fight won by KO/TKO? 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 41¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $2.4K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Fight won by submission? (34.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Fight won by submission? 保持着 34.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 35¢。
- Fight won by decision? (26%)：以 26% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Fight won by decision? 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO? (25.5%)、Fight to Go the Distance? (22.5%)，以及 Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? (19.5%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Tsarukyan in Round 2 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 41.0% | $2.4K | 41¢ | 59¢ |
| 2 | Fight won by submission? | 34.5% | $516 | 35¢ | 66¢ |
| 3 | Fight won by decision? | 26.0% | $39 | 26¢ | 74¢ |
| 4 | Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO? | 25.5% | $2.3K | 26¢ | 75¢ |
| 5 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 22.5% | $472 | 23¢ | 78¢ |
| 6 | Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? | 19.5% | $1.5K | 20¢ | 81¢ |
| 7 | Tsarukyan in Round 2 | 16.5% | $391 | 17¢ | 84¢ |
| 8 | Ruffy in Round 3 | 4.5% | $635 | 5¢ | 96¢ |
| 9 | Ruffy in Round 4 | 4.5% | $625 | 5¢ | 96¢ |
| 10 | Ruffy in Round 5 | 4.5% | $2.2K | 5¢ | 96¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Arman Tsarukyan" if Arman Tsarukyan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026.
It will resolve to "Mauricio Ruffy" if Mauricio Ruffy is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：
- 最被高估的结果：Fight won by submission? 当前交易价为 34.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 26.5%，形成 -8% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
- 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Tsarukyan in Round 2 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 16.5% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 55.3%——形成可观的 +38.8% EV 差。
- 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Fight won by decision?（EV 差：+17.1%）以及 Ruffy to win by KO/TKO?（EV 差：+1.7%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 41.0% | 63.4% | +22.4% |
| Fight won by submission? | 34.5% | 26.5% | -8.0% |
| Fight won by decision? | 26.0% | 43.1% | +17.1% |
| Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO? | 25.5% | 24.6% | -0.9% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 22.5% | 22.6% | +0.1% |
| Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? | 19.5% | 21.2% | +1.7% |
| Tsarukyan in Round 2Best EV | 16.5% | 55.3% | +38.8% |
| Ruffy in Round 3 | 4.5% | 1.0% | -3.5% |
| Ruffy in Round 4 | 4.5% | 1.0% | -3.5% |
| Ruffy in Round 5 | 4.5% | 1.0% | -3.5% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 19, 2026
- 08:55 AMNEneutralwave23$18.23
Bought 67.518519 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:54 AMNEneutralwave23$169.55
Bought 627.962963 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:53 AMNEneutralwave23$179.41
Bought 664.481482 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:53 AMSTstudio21$100.00
Bought 135.135134 Arman Tsarukyan for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.74
- 08:48 AMRERevenantsbrooch$30.00
Bought 40.540538 Arman Tsarukyan for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.74
- 08:47 AMNOnometalife$54.71
Bought 202.62963 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:46 AMRERevenantsbrooch$9.94
Bought 35.517242 Yes for Will Arman Tsarukyan win by KO or TKO? at 0.28
- 08:43 AMSKSkskskskll$2,917.27
Sold 11220.28 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.26
- 08:42 AMSHShhhekel$4.26
Bought 15.777778 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:33 AMTHThemezz$2.00
Bought 7.407408 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:29 AMNONockyimmortal$56.70
Bought 210 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:22 AMTUTupav$5.00
Bought 6.756757 Arman Tsarukyan for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.74
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Fight won by KO/TKO? 以 41% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Fight won by submission?（34.5%），以及 Fight won by decision?（26%）。该市场总成交量已达 $209.6K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一轮测算显示，Tsarukyan in Round 2 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 16.5%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 55.3%——形成 +38.8% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。
市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？
是的——数据显示市场对 Fight won by submission? 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 34.5%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 26.5%，形成 -8% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。
长尾数据中是否藏有高价值的黑马选项？
当然有。除了头部结果之外，我们的模型在排名靠后的选项中发现了被低估的潜力。Fight won by decision? 拥有 +17.1% 的正 EV 差，Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? 则为 +1.7%。尽管量化层面更有支撑，这些合约仍被实时订单簿低估。