SPY Opens Up or Down on September 21?

根据「SPY Opens Up or Down on September 21?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Up 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；Down 以 5,000% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Up (5,000%)：Up 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Down (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Down 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。

This market will resolve to "Up" if the open price for S&P 500 (SPY) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the closing price for SPY on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the open price for S&P 500 (SPY) on September 21, 2026 is lower than the closing price for SPY on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.

If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

The open price refers to the Pyth "Open" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the first minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.

The closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final full minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange (for a standard full session, the candle beginning at 3:59 PM ET; for a shortened session, the candle beginning one minute before the scheduled early close).

If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Open/Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the beginning/end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the first/last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official open or closing price (as applicable) published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the effective price for that day.

Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Open" and "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).