Senate control favorite on November 2?

2026年11月3日
Active
概率趋势
Democratic Party 70.5%
Republican Party 29.5%

核心摘要

根据「Senate control favorite on November 2?」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,Democratic Party 以压倒性的 6,900% 获胜概率主导市场;Republican Party 以 3,100% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • Democratic Party (6,900%):Democratic Party 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 6,900¢,显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • Republican Party (3,100%):作为最可行的替代选项,Republican Party 保持着 3,100% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3,100¢。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1Democratic Party6900.0%6900¢-6800¢
2Republican Party3100.0%3100¢-3000¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Democratic Party" if the Democratic Party's hourly odds value is higher than the Republican Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Republican Party" if the Republican Party's hourly odds value is higher than the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026.

If the Democratic Party's and the Republican Party's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", this market will resolve 50-50.

An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).

If no hourly odds value is published for an option for the specified window (shown as "NO_PRINT"), that option's most recent published hourly odds value will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Democratic Party or the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.

If no hourly odds value is published for either of the options between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option which resolves "Yes". If the winning outcome is neither listed option, this market will resolve 50-50.

If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-control-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

常见问题

当前市场对「Senate control favorite on November 2?」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,Democratic Party 以 6,900% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Republican Party(3,100%)。该市场总成交量已达 —,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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