Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?

根据「Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31 以压倒性的 3,050% 获胜概率主导市场；October 31 以 1,450% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $5.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31 (3,050%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 3,050¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $2.9K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• October 31 (1,450%)：作为最可行的替代选项，October 31 保持着 1,450% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,450¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi troops enter any part of Marib Governorate, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Saudi troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia. Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Saudi Arabia who are not members of the Saudi Arabian armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Saudi command or on Saudi Arabia’s behalf. Members of the armed forces of any other state, including those operating as part of a Saudi-led coalition, will not qualify.

"Marib Governorate" refers to the entirety of Marib Governorate, Yemen, as defined by its official administrative boundaries.

"Enter" means that the Saudi troops, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Marib Governorate, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Saudi troop entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.

The entrance of Saudi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.

If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying entry cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Saudi troop entry into the specified territory is not established by this market's resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia, including the Saudi Ministry of Defense; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.