Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?

根据「Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Under 以压倒性的 9,795% 获胜概率主导市场；Over 以 205% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $32.4K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Under (9,795%)：Under 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,795¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Over (205%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Over 保持着 205% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 205¢。

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).