Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?

根据「Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，42-45% 以压倒性的 4,050% 获胜概率主导市场；39-42% 以 3,850% 位居第二，<39% 以 1,500% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $33.8K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• 42-45% (4,050%)：42-45% 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,050¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $12.0K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 39-42% (3,850%)：作为最可行的替代选项，39-42% 保持着 3,850% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3,850¢。
• <39% (1,500%)：以 1,500% 的概率位列第三，市场对 <39% 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 45%+ (950%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 45%+ 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).