Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?

根据「Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，No 以压倒性的 9,935% 获胜概率主导市场；Yes 以 65% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $551K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• No (9,935%)：No 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,935¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Yes (65%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Yes 保持着 65% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 65¢。

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.

The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.

If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.