Next Gemini Argon released by...?

根据「Next Gemini Argon released by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，January 31 以压倒性的 2,200% 获胜概率主导市场；December 31 以 1,300% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• January 31 (2,200%)：January 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 2,200¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• December 31 (1,300%)：作为最可行的替代选项，December 31 保持着 1,300% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,300¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Argon" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds. For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include "Argon," such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.