
Rockets vs. Mavericks
核心摘要
根据「Rockets vs. Mavericks」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,1H Moneyline 以压倒性的 9,950% 获胜概率主导市场;Rockets vs. Mavericks 以 8,850% 位居第二,Spread -2.5 以 8,500% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $169.5K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- 1H Moneyline (9,950%):1H Moneyline 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,950¢,显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Rockets vs. Mavericks (8,850%):作为最可行的替代选项,Rockets vs. Mavericks 保持着 8,850% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,850¢。
- Spread -2.5 (8,500%):以 8,500% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Spread -2.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Spread -1.5 (8,300%)、Spread -3.5 (8,000%),以及 Spread -6.5 (7,450%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Team to Score First 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1H Moneyline | 9950.0% | — | 9950¢ | -9850¢ |
| 2 | Rockets vs. Mavericks | 8850.0% | $96.0K | 8850¢ | -8750¢ |
| 3 | Spread -2.5 | 8500.0% | $10.5K | 8500¢ | -8400¢ |
| 4 | Spread -1.5 | 8300.0% | $8.3K | 8300¢ | -8200¢ |
| 5 | Spread -3.5 | 8000.0% | $3.9K | 8000¢ | -7900¢ |
| 6 | Spread -6.5 | 7450.0% | $3.4K | 7450¢ | -7350¢ |
| 7 | Team to Score First | 5100.0% | $56 | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 8 | Odd/Even Score | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 9 | 1H O/U 110.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 10 | O/U 217.5 | 4900.0% | $5.0K | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 11 | 1H O/U 114.5 | 4750.0% | — | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 12 | 1H O/U 112.5 | 4700.0% | — | 4700¢ | -4600¢ |
| 13 | O/U 221.5 | 4250.0% | $10.1K | 4250¢ | -4150¢ |
| 14 | O/U 220.5 | 4050.0% | $9.8K | 4050¢ | -3950¢ |
| 15 | O/U 223.5 | 3100.0% | $6.5K | 3100¢ | -3000¢ |
| 16 | O/U 226.5 | 3100.0% | $2.0K | 3100¢ | -3000¢ |
| 17 | O/U 229.5 | 2750.0% | $44 | 2750¢ | -2650¢ |
| 18 | O/U 222.5 | 2700.0% | $13.2K | 2700¢ | -2600¢ |
| 19 | O/U 228.5 | 2250.0% | $554 | 2250¢ | -2150¢ |
| 20 | O/U 230.5 | 2050.0% | $120 | 2050¢ | -1950¢ |
| 21 | 1H O/U 111.5 | 1200.0% | $6 | 1200¢ | -1100¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 9 at 8:00AM ET:
If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets".
If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Oct 9, 2026
- 11:13 AMUPUpTheBlues$231.12
Bought 428 Rockets for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.54
- 11:13 AMHOHomeRunHazard$547.00
Bought 1012.96 Rockets for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.54
- 11:12 AMHOHomeRunHazard$64.14
Bought 123.35 Rockets for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.52
- 11:10 AMZZZzzz87$387.10
Bought 790 Mavericks for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.49
- 11:07 AMSUSupercycle106$1.10
Bought 2.244898 Mavericks for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.49
- 11:06 AMMEMester01$2.58
Bought 4.961539 Rockets for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.52
- 11:06 AMCRcrystal12345$144.44
Bought 294.775511 Mavericks for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.49
- 11:03 AM0X0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465$5.77
Bought 11.31 Rockets for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.51
- 11:03 AM——$1.02
Bought 1.961539 Rockets for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.52
- 11:03 AMDOdoglover4571$17.85
Bought 35 Rockets for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.51
- 11:03 AMDOdoglover4571$20.40
Bought 40 Rockets for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.51
- 11:02 AMNEneutralwave23$92.67
Bought 181.705883 Rockets for Rockets vs. Mavericks at 0.51
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Rockets vs. Mavericks」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,1H Moneyline 以 9,950% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Rockets vs. Mavericks(8,850%),以及 Spread -2.5(8,500%)。该市场总成交量已达 $169.5K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
