San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
核心摘要
根据「San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Milwaukee Brewers O/U 1.5 以压倒性的 7,350% 获胜概率主导市场;San Diego Padres O/U 0.5 以 7,150% 位居第二,Milwaukee Brewers O/U 2.5 以 7,150% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $90.2K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Milwaukee Brewers O/U 1.5 (7,350%):Milwaukee Brewers O/U 1.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,350¢,显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- San Diego Padres O/U 0.5 (7,150%):作为最可行的替代选项,San Diego Padres O/U 0.5 保持着 7,150% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 7,150¢。
- Milwaukee Brewers O/U 2.5 (7,150%):以 7,150% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Milwaukee Brewers O/U 2.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 San Diego Padres O/U 1.5 (6,950%)、1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 (6,850%),以及 O/U 6.5 (5,750%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Milwaukee Brewers O/U 3.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers O/U 1.5 | 7350.0% | — | 7350¢ | -7250¢ |
| 2 | San Diego Padres O/U 0.5 | 7150.0% | — | 7150¢ | -7050¢ |
| 3 | Milwaukee Brewers O/U 2.5 | 7150.0% | — | 7150¢ | -7050¢ |
| 4 | San Diego Padres O/U 1.5 | 6950.0% | — | 6950¢ | -6850¢ |
| 5 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 6850.0% | — | 6850¢ | -6750¢ |
| 6 | O/U 6.5 | 5750.0% | $58 | 5750¢ | -5650¢ |
| 7 | Milwaukee Brewers O/U 3.5 | 5650.0% | — | 5650¢ | -5550¢ |
| 8 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 5400.0% | — | 5400¢ | -5300¢ |
| 9 | San Diego Padres O/U 2.5 | 5250.0% | — | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 10 | Milwaukee Brewers O/U 5.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 11 | San Diego Padres O/U 4.5 | 4800.0% | — | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 12 | Spread -1.5 | 4550.0% | $29 | 4550¢ | -4450¢ |
| 13 | Milwaukee Brewers O/U 4.5 | 4500.0% | — | 4500¢ | -4400¢ |
| 14 | NRFI | 4450.0% | $2 | 4450¢ | -4350¢ |
| 15 | O/U 7.5 | 4450.0% | $241 | 4450¢ | -4350¢ |
| 16 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 4300.0% | — | 4300¢ | -4200¢ |
| 17 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 4050.0% | — | 4050¢ | -3950¢ |
| 18 | O/U 8.5 | 3650.0% | — | 3650¢ | -3550¢ |
| 19 | San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 3550.0% | $63.3K | 3550¢ | -3450¢ |
| 20 | Spread -2.5 | 3450.0% | $16 | 3450¢ | -3350¢ |
| 21 | San Diego Padres O/U 3.5 | 3300.0% | — | 3300¢ | -3200¢ |
| 22 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 3100.0% | — | 3100¢ | -3000¢ |
| 23 | Spread -1.5 | 2350.0% | $29 | 2350¢ | -2250¢ |
| 24 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 2150.0% | — | 2150¢ | -2050¢ |
| 25 | Spread -2.5 | 1650.0% | $16 | 1650¢ | -1550¢ |
| 26 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 1500.0% | — | 1500¢ | -1400¢ |
| 27 | Extra Innings | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers, scheduled for October 3 at 8:30PM ET:
This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.
This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Oct 3, 2026
- 12:41 AM0X0x33337a279F32F1c2763A8D6a4BfeE31dB99D6bc6-1770351177678$7.00
Bought 29.166667 San Diego Padres for Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) at 0.24
- 12:25 AMFUfunnyday$10.80
Bought 30 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.36
Oct 2, 2026
- 11:44 PMSTStefnc$50.00
Bought 76.923077 Milwaukee Brewers for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.65
- 11:21 PM0X0xc242468253bF912458436FcA54eF32CCD4823250-1770575964542$1.00
Bought 2.777778 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.36
- 11:03 PMMOmooseborzoi$53.30
Bought 82 Milwaukee Brewers for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.65
- 10:54 PMMOmooseborzoi$6.50
Bought 10 Milwaukee Brewers for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.65
- 10:53 PMMOmooseborzoi$14.30
Bought 22 Milwaukee Brewers for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.65
- 10:52 PMMOmooseborzoi$4.55
Bought 7 Milwaukee Brewers for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.65
- 10:51 PMMOmooseborzoi$29.25
Bought 45 Milwaukee Brewers for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.65
- 10:50 PMMOmooseborzoi$58.50
Bought 90 Milwaukee Brewers for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.65
- 10:46 PMMOmooseborzoi$24.05
Bought 37 Milwaukee Brewers for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.65
- 10:44 PMMOmooseborzoi$8.45
Bought 13 Milwaukee Brewers for San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers at 0.65
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Milwaukee Brewers O/U 1.5 以 7,350% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 San Diego Padres O/U 0.5(7,150%),以及 Milwaukee Brewers O/U 2.5(7,150%)。该市场总成交量已达 $90.2K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
