Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals

$495.5K Vol
2026年9月23日
Active
概率趋势
Philadelphia Phillies 51.5%
Washington Nationals 48.5%

核心摘要

根据「Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,O/U 7.5 以压倒性的 6,700% 获胜概率主导市场;1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 以 6,450% 位居第二,O/U 8.5 以 5,650% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $495.5K,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • O/U 7.5 (6,700%):O/U 7.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 6,700¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $54.5K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 (6,450%):作为最可行的替代选项,1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 保持着 6,450% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 6,450¢。
  • O/U 8.5 (5,650%):以 5,650% 的概率位列第三,市场对 O/U 8.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals (5,050%)、1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 (5,000%),以及 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 (5,000%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1O/U 7.56700.0%$54.5K6700¢-6600¢
21st 5 Innings O/U 3.56450.0%6450¢-6350¢
3O/U 8.55650.0%$272.2K5650¢-5550¢
4Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals5050.0%$153.2K5050¢-4950¢
51st 5 Innings Spread -1.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
61st 5 Innings Spread -1.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
71st 5 Innings O/U 4.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
81st 5 Innings O/U 5.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
91st 5 Innings O/U 6.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
10Extra Innings5000.0%$75000¢-4900¢
11Philadelphia Phillies O/U 2.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
12Philadelphia Phillies O/U 3.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
13Philadelphia Phillies O/U 4.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
14Philadelphia Phillies O/U 5.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
15Philadelphia Phillies O/U 6.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
16Washington Nationals O/U 1.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
17Washington Nationals O/U 2.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
18Washington Nationals O/U 3.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
19Washington Nationals O/U 4.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
20Washington Nationals O/U 5.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
21O/U 10.54500.0%4500¢-4400¢
22O/U 9.54400.0%$3.4K4400¢-4300¢
23Spread -1.53600.0%$5703600¢-3500¢
24Spread -1.52900.0%$5702900¢-2800¢
25Spread -2.52700.0%$11.2K2700¢-2600¢
26Spread -2.51800.0%$11.2K1800¢-1700¢

裁决规则

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals, scheduled for September 15 at 6:45PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game.

This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Sep 15, 2026

  • 11:15 PM
    $4.91

    Bought 6.635134 Washington Nationals for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) at 0.74

  • 11:14 PM
    $91.77

    Bought 199.5 Under for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 at 0.46

  • 11:14 PM
    $91.77

    Bought 199.5 Under for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 at 0.46

  • 11:13 PM
    $57.86

    Bought 199.5 Philadelphia Phillies for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) at 0.29

  • 11:13 PM
    $20.00

    Bought 50 Philadelphia Phillies for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) at 0.4

  • 11:13 PM
    $0.15

    Bought 0.5 Philadelphia Phillies for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) at 0.29

  • 11:11 PM
    HAhasito
    $10.00

    Bought 12.820513 Over for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 at 0.78

  • 11:11 PM
    $4.00

    Bought 5 Philadelphia Phillies for Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) at 0.8

  • 11:11 PM
    LIlifeonrock
    $27.90

    Sold 96.22 Under for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 at 0.29

  • 11:07 PM
    JUJumperhq
    $38.00

    Bought 100 Philadelphia Phillies for Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) at 0.38

  • 11:07 PM
    0X0x4f2
    $122.00

    Bought 244 Over for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 at 0.5

  • 11:07 PM
    ZUzusu
    $3.00

    Bought 6 Over for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 at 0.5

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

PL1
pleaseplease123
事件盈亏
-$33,839.89
成交量
$209,224.16
持仓数
UnderUnder
TA2
Talvez10
事件盈亏
+$26,399.55
成交量
$168,520.78
持仓数
Over
HO3
HomeRunHazard
事件盈亏
-$519.67
成交量
$62,976.68
持仓数
UnderOverPhiladelphia Phillies+5
KA4
kabina-
事件盈亏
+$8,413.61
成交量
$59,128.52
持仓数
OverUnder
WR5
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r
事件盈亏
-$2,729.38
成交量
$40,052.26
持仓数
UnderOver
HE6
0xheavy888
事件盈亏
+$1,677.69
成交量
$28,864.45
持仓数
UnderWashington NationalsOver+1
AN7
AnonymousUsername
事件盈亏
+$2,273.56
成交量
$26,351.82
持仓数
UnderWashington NationalsWashington Nationals
3D8
0x3DFb…8185
事件盈亏
-$4,103.90
成交量
$22,183.91
持仓数
Philadelphia Phillies

常见问题

当前市场对「Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,O/U 7.5 以 6,700% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5(6,450%),以及 O/U 8.5(5,650%)。该市场总成交量已达 $495.5K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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