MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)

$1.3M Vol
2026年10月12日
Active
概率趋势
Cincinnati Reds 67.8%
Other 50.0%
Chicago Cubs 11.5%
Detroit Tigers 6.9%
Athletics 3.6%

核心摘要

根据「MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Detroit Tigers 以压倒性的 66% 获胜概率主导市场；Arizona Diamondbacks 以 49.5% 位居第二，Atlanta Braves 以 49.5% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $1.3M，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Detroit Tigers (66%)：Detroit Tigers 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 66¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $153.0K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Arizona Diamondbacks (49.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Arizona Diamondbacks 保持着 49.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 50¢。
  • Atlanta Braves (49.5%)：以 49.5% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Atlanta Braves 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 Baltimore Orioles (49.5%)、Boston Red Sox (49.5%)，以及 Chicago Cubs (49.5%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Chicago White Sox 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Detroit Tigers66.0%$153.0K66¢34¢
2Arizona Diamondbacks49.5%$1.3K50¢51¢
3Atlanta Braves49.5%$55550¢51¢
4Baltimore Orioles49.5%$58150¢51¢
5Boston Red Sox49.5%$40750¢51¢
6Chicago Cubs49.5%$1.5K50¢51¢
7Chicago White Sox49.5%$56750¢51¢
8Cincinnati Reds49.5%$2.1K50¢51¢
9Cleveland Guardians49.5%$50450¢51¢
10Colorado Rockies49.5%$1.3K50¢51¢
11Houston Astros49.5%$45650¢51¢
12Kansas City Royals49.5%$83650¢51¢
13Los Angeles Angels49.5%$44850¢51¢
14Los Angeles Dodgers49.5%$3.1K50¢51¢
15Miami Marlins49.5%$93.4K50¢51¢
16Milwaukee Brewers49.5%$60050¢51¢
17Minnesota Twins49.5%$51850¢51¢
18New York Mets49.5%$465.7K50¢51¢
19New York Yankees49.5%$1.4K50¢51¢
20Athletics49.5%$1.2K50¢51¢
21Philadelphia Phillies49.5%$557.6K50¢51¢
22Pittsburgh Pirates49.5%$35650¢51¢
23San Diego Padres49.5%$30050¢51¢
24San Francisco Giants49.5%$38450¢51¢
25Seattle Mariners49.5%$37450¢51¢
26St. Louis Cardinals49.5%$47350¢51¢
27Tampa Bay Rays49.5%$1.1K50¢51¢
28Texas Rangers49.5%$1.4K50¢51¢
29Toronto Blue Jays49.5%$37450¢51¢
30Washington Nationals49.5%$54550¢51¢
31Other49.5%—50¢51¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season.

If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%, this market will resolve in favor of the team that records more challenges won during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the team with the highest won% cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/abs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最被高估的结果：Detroit Tigers 当前交易价为 66%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 13.7%，形成 -52.3% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Detroit Tigers66.0%13.7%-52.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks49.5%26.9%-22.6%
Atlanta Braves49.5%1.0%-48.5%
Baltimore Orioles49.5%12.7%-36.8%
Boston Red Sox49.5%1.0%-48.5%
Chicago Cubs49.5%9.8%-39.8%
Chicago White Sox49.5%7.5%-42.0%
Cincinnati Reds49.5%22.3%-27.2%
Cleveland Guardians49.5%6.6%-42.9%
Colorado Rockies49.5%14.6%-34.9%
Houston Astros49.5%20.9%-28.6%
Kansas City Royals49.5%20.2%-29.3%
Los Angeles Angels49.5%1.0%-48.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers49.5%22.9%-26.6%
Miami Marlins49.5%12.3%-37.3%
Milwaukee Brewers49.5%6.8%-42.7%
Minnesota Twins49.5%1.0%-48.5%
New York Mets49.5%12.3%-37.2%
New York Yankees49.5%8.5%-41.0%
Athletics49.5%15.1%-34.4%
Philadelphia Phillies49.5%15.5%-34.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates49.5%21.7%-27.8%
San Diego Padres49.5%1.0%-48.5%
San Francisco Giants49.5%21.1%-28.4%
Seattle Mariners49.5%21.2%-28.3%
St. Louis Cardinals49.5%18.3%-31.2%
Tampa Bay Rays49.5%10.3%-39.2%
Texas Rangers49.5%18.6%-30.9%
Toronto Blue Jays49.5%7.3%-42.2%
Washington Nationals49.5%1.0%-48.5%
Other49.5%35.9%-13.6%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Sep 6, 2026

  • 04:12 AM
    JOJonnyA
    $18.60

    Bought 20 No for Will the Detroit Tigers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.93

Sep 5, 2026

  • 12:44 AM
    LOlolzzzlol
    $20.40

    Sold 30 Yes for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.68

Sep 4, 2026

  • 09:16 PM
    LOlololol3
    $0.00

    Sold 0.32 Yes for Will the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.01

  • 08:57 AM
    PPPPMT
    $1.92

    Sold 6 No for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.32

  • 03:20 AM
    JOJonnyA
    $25.88

    Sold 25.88 No for Will the Houston Astros have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 1

  • 02:02 AM
    MIMiaomi666
    $6.40

    Sold 20 No for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.32

Sep 3, 2026

  • 03:13 AM
    NInibblemaxxing
    $1.49

    Bought 5.338077 No for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.28

  • 12:37 AM
    ——
    $0.73

    Sold 0.85 Yes for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.86

Sep 2, 2026

  • 11:48 PM
    SHshoobadooba18
    $0.73

    Sold 0.85 Yes for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.86

  • 11:35 PM
    DRDr.PNL
    $17.93

    Sold 20.85 Yes for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.86

  • 11:01 PM
    LOlolzzzlol
    $0.00

    Sold 20 Yes for Will the Washington Nationals have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0

  • 04:38 PM
    61613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.
    $1.68

    Sold 56 Yes for Will the Washington Nationals have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.03

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
事件盈亏
+$0.00
成交量
$5,709.00
持仓数
NoNoNo+27
612
613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.
事件盈亏
+$7.79
成交量
$2,150.40
持仓数
YesYesYes+20
LO3
LornaPredicts
事件盈亏
+$25.35
成交量
$1,253.81
持仓数
YesYesYes+23
504
50cents
事件盈亏
+$77.76
成交量
$756.87
持仓数
YesYesYes+1
HA5
Haradwaith
事件盈亏
-$25.02
成交量
$568.91
持仓数
YesYesYes+2
CW6
cwc909
事件盈亏
-$16.95
成交量
$560.00
持仓数
YesYesYes+25
MO7
Mojito9
事件盈亏
-$2.44
成交量
$208.30
持仓数
NoNoYes+16
GC8
gcjames
事件盈亏
+$2.69
成交量
$200.00
持仓数
NoNoNo+1

常见问题

当前市场对「MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Detroit Tigers 以 66% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Arizona Diamondbacks（49.5%），以及 Atlanta Braves（49.5%）。该市场总成交量已达 $1.3M，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？

是的——数据显示市场对 Detroit Tigers 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 66%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 13.7%，形成 -52.3% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。

免费开始