LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs

$118.9K Vol
2026年10月2日
Active
概率趋势
T1 Academy 61.5%
Solary 38.5%

核心摘要

根据「LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,O/U 3.5 Games 以压倒性的 7,100% 获胜概率主导市场;Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? 以 5,700% 位居第二,Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? 以 5,700% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $118.9K,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • O/U 3.5 Games (7,100%):O/U 3.5 Games 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,100¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $516 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? (5,700%):作为最可行的替代选项,Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? 保持着 5,700% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,700¢。
  • Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? (5,700%):以 5,700% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? (5,700%)、Any Player Penta Kill (5,200%),以及 Any Player Quadra Kill (5,150%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1O/U 3.5 Games7100.0%$5167100¢-7000¢
2Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?5700.0%—5700¢-5600¢
3Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?5700.0%—5700¢-5600¢
4Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?5700.0%—5700¢-5600¢
5Any Player Penta Kill5200.0%—5200¢-5100¢
6Any Player Quadra Kill5150.0%—5150¢-5050¢
7Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
8Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
9Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
10Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
11Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
12Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
13Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
14Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
15Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
16Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
17Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
18Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
19Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
20Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
21Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
22Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
23Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
24Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
25Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
26Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
27Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
28Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
29First Blood in Game 2?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
30First Blood in Game 4?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
31First Blood in Game 1?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
32Odd/Even Total Kills4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
33Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
34Odd/Even Total Kills4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
35First Blood in Game 3?4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
36Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?4800.0%—4800¢-4700¢
37Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 4?4800.0%—4800¢-4700¢
38Game 2 Winner4650.0%$7.7K4650¢-4550¢
39Game 3 Winner4600.0%$8.8K4600¢-4500¢
40Game 4 Winner4600.0%—4600¢-4500¢
41Game 1 Winner4300.0%$12.5K4300¢-4200¢
42Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Solary (+1.5)4300.0%$4.6K4300¢-4200¢
43Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?4200.0%—4200¢-4100¢
44Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 3?4200.0%—4200¢-4100¢
45Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?4200.0%—4200¢-4100¢
46Match Winner3850.0%$83.8K3850¢-3750¢
47O/U 4.5 Games3400.0%$3453400¢-3300¢
48Any Player Penta Kill2550.0%—2550¢-2450¢
49Any Player Penta Kill2550.0%—2550¢-2450¢
50Any Player Penta Kill2550.0%—2550¢-2450¢
51Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Solary (+2.5)1750.0%$5981750¢-1650¢

裁决规则

This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Solary and T1 Academy in the World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Solary" if Solary win the match against T1 Academy.

This market will resolve to "T1 Academy" if T1 Academy win the match against Solary.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 2, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Oct 1, 2026

  • 12:47 PM
    ATathadi2
    $1.00

    Bought 2.702703 Solary for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.37

  • 12:47 PM
    YUYukinoP68
    $2.00

    Bought 3.125 T1 Academy for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.64

  • 12:26 PM
    PEPedonculeDeJonquille
    $14.80

    Bought 20 Over for Games Total: O/U 3.5 at 0.74

  • 11:39 AM
    ATathadi2
    $1.07

    Bought 2.891892 Solary for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.37

  • 11:39 AM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $19.04

    Bought 29.75 T1 Academy for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.64

  • 11:35 AM
    ATathadi2
    $1.00

    Bought 2.702703 Solary for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.37

  • 11:35 AM
    ——
    $3.20

    Bought 5 T1 Academy for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.64

  • 11:31 AM
    AGAge30Retire
    $254.56

    Bought 688 Solary for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.37

  • 11:24 AM
    MImitgnik
    $9.84

    Sold 15.62 T1 Academy for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.63

  • 10:36 AM
    ATathadi2
    $5.63

    Bought 15.216217 Solary for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.37

  • 10:36 AM
    MIMisix
    $100.00

    Bought 156.25 T1 Academy for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.64

  • 10:27 AM
    ATathadi2
    $1.00

    Bought 2.702703 Solary for LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs at 0.37

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

691
0x6918…0027
事件盈亏
-$88.97
成交量
$23,333.28
持仓数
SolarySolarySolary+2
GO2
Gooooooollllllllll
事件盈亏
+$49.94
成交量
$19,999.79
持仓数
Solary
ZH3
zhutianwei1
事件盈亏
-$108.49
成交量
$14,290.07
持仓数
T1 Academy
OM4
omnibus-076daa
事件盈亏
-$1.99
成交量
$9,649.76
持仓数
Solary
BI5
bit754
事件盈亏
+$3.54
成交量
$8,168.83
持仓数
T1 Academy
LU6
lug
事件盈亏
-$40.52
成交量
$8,107.99
持仓数
Solary
EB7
EbatorVagin228
事件盈亏
-$46.35
成交量
$7,865.24
持仓数
T1 AcademyT1 Academy
LO8
lolpredict
事件盈亏
+$109.10
成交量
$7,273.38
持仓数
Solary

常见问题

当前市场对「LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,O/U 3.5 Games 以 7,100% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?(5,700%),以及 Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?(5,700%)。该市场总成交量已达 $118.9K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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