LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs

$196.8K Vol
2026年10月11日
Active
概率趋势
essences 100.0%
PART TIMERS 0.1%

核心摘要

根据「LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,Game 2 Winner 以压倒性的 9,995% 获胜概率主导市场;O/U 3.5 Games 以 9,995% 位居第二,O/U 4.5 Games 以 9,995% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $196.8K,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • Game 2 Winner (9,995%):Game 2 Winner 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,995¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $28.9K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • O/U 3.5 Games (9,995%):作为最可行的替代选项,O/U 3.5 Games 保持着 9,995% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,995¢。
  • O/U 4.5 Games (9,995%):以 9,995% 的概率位列第三,市场对 O/U 4.5 Games 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 Both Teams Slay a Dragon (5,250%)、Both Teams Slay a Dragon (5,250%),以及 Odd/Even Total Kills (5,250%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1Game 2 Winner9995.0%$28.9K9995¢-9895¢
2O/U 3.5 Games9995.0%$2139995¢-9895¢
3O/U 4.5 Games9995.0%$1649995¢-9895¢
4Both Teams Slay a Dragon5250.0%—5250¢-5150¢
5Both Teams Slay a Dragon5250.0%—5250¢-5150¢
6Odd/Even Total Kills5250.0%—5250¢-5150¢
7Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
8Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
9Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
10Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
11Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
12Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
13Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
14Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
15Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
16Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
17Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
18Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
19Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4750.0%—4750¢-4650¢
20Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors4750.0%—4750¢-4650¢
21Any Player Quadra Kill4750.0%—4750¢-4650¢
22Any Player Penta Kill4750.0%—4750¢-4650¢
23Odd/Even Total Kills4750.0%—4750¢-4650¢
24Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4750.0%—4750¢-4650¢
25Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors4750.0%—4750¢-4650¢
26Any Player Quadra Kill4750.0%—4750¢-4650¢
27Any Player Penta Kill4750.0%—4750¢-4650¢
28Game 3 Winner5.0%$27.6K5¢95¢
29Game 4 Winner5.0%$49.3K5¢95¢
30Match Winner5.0%$66.4K5¢95¢

裁决规则

This market refers to the LoL Lower Bracket Semifinal match between PART TIMERS and essences in the LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "PART TIMERS" if PART TIMERS win the match against essences.

This market will resolve to "essences" if essences win the match against PART TIMERS.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 11, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Oct 11, 2026

  • 01:29 PM
    1515perces
    $2.60

    Bought 5 PART TIMERS for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences - Game 1 Winner at 0.52

  • 01:28 PM
    JIJimmyman132
    $12.98

    Bought 24.96 PART TIMERS for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences - Game 1 Winner at 0.52

  • 01:26 PM
    GRGREGsdbgdfsfwe
    $29.98

    Bought 61.1752 essences for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs at 0.49

  • 01:20 PM
    TUTur3mai
    $1.02

    Bought 2.081633 essences for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs at 0.49

  • 01:20 PM
    SUsuntori
    $47.84

    Bought 86.979637 PART TIMERS for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs at 0.55

  • 01:19 PM
    0X0x602783331AA0c8E3Bb0EE4DD521f119b4bc1b320-1790699222479
    $4.48

    Bought 9.142858 essences for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs at 0.49

  • 01:04 PM
    ALalex-rus
    $4.90

    Bought 8.305085 PART TIMERS for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs at 0.59

  • 12:56 PM
    ZZzzsssa
    $5.33

    Bought 10.88 essences for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs at 0.49

  • 12:52 PM
    ANAndrew098
    $60.00

    Bought 120 essences for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs at 0.5

  • 12:37 PM
    VIvip190666
    $8.56

    Bought 17.46 essences for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs at 0.49

  • 12:36 PM
    VIvip190666
    $284.13

    Bought 579.86 essences for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs at 0.49

  • 12:35 PM
    VIvip190666
    $285.28

    Bought 570.55 essences for LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs at 0.5

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

CO1
ColdBlooded
事件盈亏
+$196.55
成交量
$7,366.91
持仓数
PART TIMERS
VI2
vip190666
事件盈亏
-$37.27
成交量
$3,484.68
持仓数
essences
SU3
suntori
事件盈亏
-$531.53
成交量
$2,653.98
持仓数
essences
ZE4
Zenhack
事件盈亏
+$70.83
成交量
$1,447.04
持仓数
PART TIMERS
XX5
xx0009
事件盈亏
-$69.87
成交量
$1,400.00
持仓数
essences
2A6
0x2A35…2718
事件盈亏
-$305.64
成交量
$1,348.26
持仓数
PART TIMERS
9E7
0x9e3e…9396
事件盈亏
+$274.00
成交量
$1,210.50
持仓数
essences
PO8
pol6698
事件盈亏
-$7.04
成交量
$1,115.37
持仓数
essences

常见问题

当前市场对「LoL: PART TIMERS vs essences (BO5) - LCP Promotion: Wild Card Playoffs」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,Game 2 Winner 以 9,995% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 O/U 3.5 Games(9,995%),以及 O/U 4.5 Games(9,995%)。该市场总成交量已达 $196.8K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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