Lima Mayoral Election Winner

根据「Lima Mayoral Election Winner」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Rafael López Aliaga 以压倒性的 6,980% 获胜概率主导市场；Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 以 1,250% 位居第二，Francis James Allison Oyague 以 650% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $124.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Rafael López Aliaga (6,980%)：Rafael López Aliaga 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 6,980¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $6.2K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca (1,250%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 保持着 1,250% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,250¢。
• Francis James Allison Oyague (650%)：以 650% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Francis James Allison Oyague 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera (200%)、Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli (160%)，以及 Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué (90%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Samuel Marcos Daza Taype 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).