LA28 Olympics run as scheduled?

根据「LA28 Olympics run as scheduled?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Yes 以压倒性的 9,065% 获胜概率主导市场；No 以 935% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $40.6K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Yes (9,065%)：Yes 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,065¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• No (935%)：作为最可行的替代选项，No 保持着 935% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 935¢。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 177 gold medals have been officially awarded at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games (LA28) by July 25, 2028, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “officially awarded” is defined as the gold-deciding final for the relevant event concluding and the gold medalist(s) being determined under official results. A qualifying awarding will still count towards the total regardless of whether the results are later reviewed or modified.

Medal ceremonies aren’t required for an awarding to qualify. Each event will count once towards the total; a team gold or a shared gold will still count as one event.

Both the specified threshold and deadline will remain fixed regardless of whether events are added to or cut from the program, or if LA28 is postponed, suspended, shortened, relocated, or rescheduled in any way.

Heats, prelims, semifinals, and any phase that doesn’t decide gold will not count. Events postponed past the deadline or cancelled without deciding a gold medalist will not count.

If LA28 officially awards at least one gold medal but is cancelled or curtailed, this market will resolve on the number of officially awarded gold medals up until that point.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the organizers of LA28, including the Los Angeles Organizing Committee (https://la28.org/) and the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).