
Kentucky Governor Election Winner (2027)
核心摘要
根据「Kentucky Governor Election Winner (2027)」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Republican 以压倒性的 8,050% 获胜概率主导市场;Democrat 以 1,650% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $2.1K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Republican (8,050%):Republican 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,050¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $2.1K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Democrat (1,650%):作为最可行的替代选项,Democrat 保持着 1,650% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,650¢。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Republican | 8050.0% | $2.1K | 8050¢ | -7950¢ |
| 2 | Democrat | 1650.0% | $47 | 1650¢ | -1550¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2027 Kentucky gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
常见问题
当前市场对「Kentucky Governor Election Winner (2027)」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Republican 以 8,050% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Democrat(1,650%)。该市场总成交量已达 $2.1K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
