Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)

根据「Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，6-9 points behind 以压倒性的 3,050% 获胜概率主导市场；Runs ahead 以 2,600% 位居第二，3-6 points behind 以 2,550% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• 6-9 points behind (3,050%)：6-9 points behind 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 3,050¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Runs ahead (2,600%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Runs ahead 保持着 2,600% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2,600¢。
• 3-6 points behind (2,550%)：以 2,550% 的概率位列第三，市场对 3-6 points behind 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 9+ points behind (2,450%)，以及 0-3 points behind (1,100%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 9+ points behind 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

The 2026 Georgia general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Keisha Lance Bottoms is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia, and Jon Ossoff is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Georgia.

This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Keisha Lance Bottoms’ vote share in the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election falls below Jon Ossoff’s vote share in the 2026 Georgia U.S. Senate election. If Bottoms’ vote share exceeds Ossoff’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.

Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates.

If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”

If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.

The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Georgia Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.