Jynxzi, Ron, and Los # of Minecraft deaths during marathon?

根据「Jynxzi, Ron, and Los # of Minecraft deaths during marathon?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，210-239 以压倒性的 1,900% 获胜概率主导市场；60-89 以 1,850% 位居第二，90-119 以 1,800% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• 210-239 (1,900%)：210-239 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 1,900¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 60-89 (1,850%)：作为最可行的替代选项，60-89 保持着 1,850% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,850¢。
• 90-119 (1,800%)：以 1,800% 的概率位列第三，市场对 90-119 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 30-59 (1,550%)、240-269 (1,350%)，以及 270-299 (1,350%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 120-149 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos are scheduled to begin streaming a hardcore Minecraft marathon on October 5, 2026. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon in a hardcore Minecraft world.

This market will resolve according to the number of combined Minecraft deaths across all three players during the entire marathon.

The number of deaths will be measured as the final value displayed on the cumulative in-game death counter on Jynxzi’s official broadcast on Twitch at the time Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos complete or end the marathon. If Jynxzi’s counter is not available at that time, the number of deaths will be measured as the final value displayed on the cumulative in-game death counter on StableRonaldo’s official broadcast on Twitch, and if that counter is also not available, on Los Pollos’s official broadcast on Twitch. The value displayed on the counter will be used regardless of how it is calculated, so long as it represents cumulative deaths occurring across the marathon. It will not matter whether Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective.

If none of these counters are available at the specified time, or if a counter becomes clearly erroneous or clearly does not represent the cumulative number of in-game Minecraft deaths during the entire marathon, this market will resolve according to the most recent value displayed on the cumulative in-game death counters, according to the aforementioned hierarchy, that accurately represents the cumulative number of in-game Minecraft deaths during the marathon.

This market will remain open until the marathon is declared complete, abandoned, or otherwise finally ended by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, or Los Pollos, regardless of whether the challenge is completed.

If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the number on the counter at that point. If the marathon is still ongoing as of November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the value displayed on the counters at that time, according to the aforementioned hierarchy.

The resolution source for this market will be the in-game death counters displayed on Jynxzi’s, StableRonaldo’s, and Los Pollos’s official broadcasts on Twitch and YouTube according to the aforementioned hierarchy.