Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

根据「Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，No 以压倒性的 8,150% 获胜概率主导市场；Yes 以 1,850% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $130.4K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• No (8,150%)：No 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,150¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Yes (1,850%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Yes 保持着 1,850% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,850¢。

On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government. A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify. A Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister’s public statements will always be considered to be issued on-the-record in a capacity representing the Israeli national government for purposes of this market. A statement from a lawmaker or other government official speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify.

For purposes of this market, an affiliated group of Iran is: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. An unlisted group will only qualify if the Israeli claim itself, or accompanying statements or releases, specifies that the group is a proxy of or otherwise is controlled or directed by Iran. A general statement that it was conducted by an Iranian proxy will also qualify, even if no group is named.

Such a statement will be considered to claim that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident if it explicitly claims that Iran or an affiliated group ordered, carried out, planned, or otherwise directly aided or coordinated the incident. Statements that attribute only inspiration or ideological influence (e.g., "this would not have happened if Iran didn't radicalize terrorists," "the co-pilot was influenced by Hamas' ideas") will not qualify.

Once a qualifying announcement has been made, no subsequent walkback or retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli national government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.